Who Paid The Price For Hormuz Crisis? $330 Billion Fossil Fuel Shock Revealed

The six-month US-Israel war with Iran has pushed up the cost of fossil fuel imports worldwide, leaving importing countries with an estimated $330 billion in additional payments for seaborne crude oil, refined products and liquefied natural gas (LNG), according to a new report by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA).

The report, What the Hormuz crisis has cost fossil fuel importers — March to August 2026, compares actual fossil fuel prices after the strikes with futures-market expectations in the 12 days before the conflict began. It estimates the additional amount importers paid because prices remained above those pre-war expectations.

The estimate covers six months following the strikes and is a gross cost, meaning it does not subtract additional export earnings made by countries that benefited from higher fossil fuel prices.

Oil, diesel and LNG drive the shock

Crude oil accounted for the largest share of the additional bill at $164.1 billion, followed by diesel and gasoil at $73.8 billion. Gasoline added another $35.7 billion, while LNG contributed $38 billion across the Atlantic and Pacific basins. Jet fuel accounted for a further $20 billion.

The price shock was particularly severe for gas and refined fuels. Asian LNG prices averaged 75% above pre-war expectations between March and August, while European gas prices were 60% higher. Diesel was 59% above expectations, gasoline 43% higher and Brent crude 35% higher.

Brent crude averaged about $93 a barrel during the six-month period. Prices briefly fell below pre-strike levels in late June before climbing to $105 a barrel on July 23. CREA said oil remained above its pre-strike level on 94% of trading days.

Refined products have proved more persistent than crude. Diesel, for instance, averaged $161 a barrel against a pre-war expectation of $101, leaving prices 59% higher. Its premium remained above 55% in five of the six months covered by the report.

India among the biggest hit

India was among the countries facing the largest additional fossil fuel import costs. Its gross additional cost was estimated at $22 billion, behind only the European Union at $78 billion and China at $35 billion.

On a net basis, after accounting for additional export earnings, India's cost across the fuels covered by the analysis stood at $14.4 billion, equivalent to 0.38% of GDP or 1.4 days of national income. China recorded the largest net cost at $31.7 billion.

The impact has also extended directly to India's cooking fuel market. CREA estimates that India paid 29% more per tonne for imported LPG than the market had expected over the six months, while imports fell 26%.

India's LPG import bill was around $4.7 billion, with approximately one-fifth representing the additional cost caused by the price shock.

The report separately estimates India's additional LPG import cost at $1.1 billion. Import-parity costs for a standard 14.2-kg domestic cylinder averaged around $8.10, compared with $6.28 under the pre-war expectation — an increase of about $1.80 per refill. CREA cautioned that these are import-parity figures and do not represent the final price paid by households after subsidies, taxes and distribution margins.

Europe and East Asia bear the biggest net burden

The European Union recorded the largest regional net cost at $54 billion, followed by East Asia at $49 billion. South Asia recorded a net cost of $18.5 billion, while Southeast Asia lost $13.9 billion.

The burden was much lighter — and in some cases negative — for major fossil fuel-exporting regions.

The Middle East recorded a $61.2 billion net gain, North America gained $47 billion and Russia gained $35.9 billion as higher prices lifted export earnings.

Russia, in particular, benefited from the price shock after its fossil fuel export earnings had fallen to an all-time low in January.

CREA said higher prices, combined with US sanctions waivers, provided Moscow with a financial boost during the crisis.

Poorer countries carry a heavier burden

The report also highlights the unequal economic impact of the crisis. A typical low- or lower-middle-income fossil fuel importer paid an additional 1% of GDP because of the price shock, compared with 0.45% for a typical high-income importer.

CREA estimates that poorer countries faced roughly twice the relative burden of richer importers.

Egypt was the most exposed among the 20 largest payers, with an additional cost equivalent to 1.33% of GDP, or nearly five days of national income.

Clean energy cushions the blow

The report also finds that investments in non-fossil power generation since 2020 have already reduced some of the financial damage.

During the first five months of the crisis, additional clean electricity generation helped importing countries avoid an estimated $36 billion in coal, gas and oil imports.

Gas accounted for $22 billion of the avoided imports, coal for $10 billion and oil for $5 billion.

CREA estimates that the monthly additional fossil fuel import costs caused by the crisis were broadly comparable with global monthly renewable-power investment.

The report notes that global renewable investment averaged about $58 billion a month in 2025, only slightly above the estimated $55.3 billion in additional monthly fossil fuel costs caused by the war.

CREA stressed that its $330 billion estimate is conservative. The calculation excludes freight and war-risk premiums, pipeline gas, coal, fuel oil, naphtha, blending components and the economic cost of fuel demand that was suppressed because some buyers could no longer afford imports.

The analysis compares realised prices with the futures curve prevailing between February 16 and 27, before the strikes.

While other market developments may also have influenced prices, CREA points to the immediate jump following the March 2 strikes as evidence of the conflict's impact.