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Trump Trade War Sparks Canada’s Big India Pivot: $70 Billion Target In Sight

Canada is turning to India to diversify its trade ties as an escalating tariff war with the US pushes Ottawa to seek new markets, investment and supply-chain partnerships

Summary
  • Canada and India are targeting CAD 70 billion in bilateral trade by 2030, with negotiations for a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement expected to conclude by the end of 2026.

  • Ottawa is also looking to deepen cooperation with New Delhi on energy and food security, while exploring a Bilateral Investment Treaty and wider adoption of India's UPI payment system.

  • The trade push comes as US President Donald Trump has imposed 50% tariffs on $20 billion of Canadian products, prompting Ottawa to announce retaliatory duties on around $20 billion of US imports.

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Canada is actively seeking to diversify its economic relationships amid an escalating trade war with the US. In a strategic pivot, Canadian Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne hosted his Indian counterpart Nirmala Sitharaman for a joint press conference in Toronto on Thursday.

The interaction highlighted Ottawa's urgency to widen its global trade networks.

"You all will understand why I have such a big smile on my face this morning. When I think about diversification and I'm standing next to India's Finance Minister, I can tell you things are going well," Champagne said.

Strategic Partnership and Growth

India has surpassed Japan to become the world's fourth-largest economy. The Asian nation ranks even higher when adjusted for purchasing power parity, offering a vast consumer market with a population of 1.4bn.

Champagne highlighted the complementary nature of the two economies during the briefing.

"We can be a very strategic partner to India when it comes to energy security, when it comes to food security," Champagne said. "I think Canadians will realise India is the fourth-largest economy in the world, 1.4 billion people."

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Champagne pointed to the sheer size of the Indian market as a major driver for future commercial integration.

"Let's be clear: India is the world's fastest-growing major economy - the fourth largest economy in the world now. India has surpassed Japan now. If you put in purchasing power, you would see that India is even higher in the ranking. I want to compliment you for the journey that India has travelled and with 1.4 billion people there is a lot of opportunities..." Champagne said.

Champagne praised the trajectory of Indian development.

"We are very aligned in our vision, in our desire to bring this relationship to its full potential. Canada and India have what each other needs," Champagne said.

"When I think about India, I think about possibilities. When I think about India, I think about opportunities. When I think about India, I think about scale and talent. This is really the essence of what we discussed."

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Ambitious Bilateral Trade Targets

New Delhi and Ottawa aim to conclude negotiations on a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) by the end of 2026.

The two nations also plan to launch Bilateral Investment Treaty talks and explore wider adoption of India's UPI payment system. They target expanding bilateral trade to CAD 70bn by 2030.

Escalating US Trade Dispute

Ottawa's urgency to deepen Asian ties follows severe economic friction with its largest trading partner. Last week, US President Donald Trump authorized 50% tariffs on Canadian products valued at $20bn.

This aggressive move followed the breakdown of trade negotiations, which stalled over the handling of medium- and heavy-duty vehicles.

On Tuesday, Ottawa struck back by placing retaliatory duties on roughly $20bn in yearly imports from the US, along with support measures for affected businesses and workers.

The Canadian retaliatory measures will take effect on September 8. The government plans to apply tariff rates of 15%, 25% and 50% across approximately 700 US products to shield local industries.

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