Trump Issues Ultimatum to India: “Massive” Tariffs will Remain Unless New Delhi Curbs Russian Oil Purchases

US President Donald Trump on Monday publicly warned that India would continue to face “massive” tariffs unless it curbs purchases of Russian crude, escalating a high-stakes trade standoff between the world’s two largest democracies.

New Delhi said it was not aware of any such conversation between Mr. Trump and Prime Minister Narendra Modi and reiterated that its energy policy is driven by national interest and market conditions.

Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One that he had spoken to Mr. Modi and that the prime minister had “said he's not going to be doing the Russian oil thing.” When Indian officials disputed the claim, the president doubled down: “But if they want to say that, then they'll just continue to pay massive tariffs, and they don't want to do that.”

The comments tie Washington’s geopolitical objective, cutting Moscow’s oil revenue amid the Ukraine war, directly to trade penalties.

Earlier this year the Trump administration raised duties on a range of Indian goods, eventually imposing tariffs of up to 50%, and US officials have publicly linked the punitive measures to India’s continued imports of Russian crude.

India’s Stance

New Delhi has defended its stance. A spokesperson for the Ministry of External Affairs said energy decisions are taken in India’s national interest to protect consumers from volatile global prices, and noted that energy cooperation with the United States has strengthened over the past decade.

“It has been our consistent priority to safeguard the interests of the Indian consumer in a volatile energy scenario,” the spokesperson said.

The dispute comes as both capitals manoeuvre for leverage ahead of high-level meetings between leaders, and against a backdrop of shifting global energy flows. US officials have pressed countries to curb Russian oil purchases so as to reduce Moscow’s revenue stream; India has become one of the largest buyers of seaborne Russian crude, often at discounted rates that have helped keep domestic fuel costs lower.

Potential Impact

Indian refiners’ buying cycles mean any change in import patterns would appear with a lag. Cargos already booked for November and December could delay a visible decline in shipments until the turn of the year.

Several reports suggested India’s Russian imports could even rise in some months as flows and discounts evolve.

Analysts say the Trump ultimatum risks widening the bilateral rift and could hurt Indian exporters already under higher US duties. Washington faces a policy trade-off: pressing India to align on sanctions strategy while using tariffs that, if prolonged, inflict measurable economic pain on exporters and complicate diplomatic ties.

For its part, the White House has maintained that the tariffs are a lever to discourage purchases that sustain Moscow’s war effort. India, meanwhile, insists on an energy policy that secures supplies and shields consumers from price volatility, framing its purchases as pragmatic rather than political.