Inside BRICS’ Tn Dollar Trade Triangle: China, Russia And India

BRICS has expanded from its original group of major emerging economies into an 11-member bloc, strengthening its role in discussions around a more multipolar global economy. But behind the larger grouping, much of its economic weight is concentrated in China, Russia and India.

Together, the three countries account for a large share of BRICS’ economic output, industrial capacity and trade. Their relationships with one another are also shaping how the bloc’s economic ties could evolve.

China, India And Russia Carry Much Of BRICS’ Economic Weight

BRICS as a whole has more than $35 trillion in nominal GDP and over $90 trillion in purchasing power parity (PPP) terms.

China is by far the largest economy in the group, with around $20.9 trillion in nominal GDP and $44.3 trillion in PPP terms. India follows with about $4.2 trillion in nominal GDP and $18.9 trillion in PPP. Russia contributes around $2.7 trillion in nominal GDP and $7.5 trillion in PPP terms.

Together, the three economies account for more than 80% of BRICS’ nominal economic output and around 78% of its PPP-based output.

That economic weight makes their bilateral relationships particularly important to the broader BRICS trade story.

Three Trade Routes Shape The Triangle

The economic relationship between the three countries can broadly be understood through three major trade corridors: China-Russia, China-India and India-Russia.

China and Russia have developed the strongest trade relationship among the three.

Russia supplies China with large quantities of crude oil, gas, LNG, minerals and other commodities, while China supplies Russia with machinery, electronics, vehicles and other manufactured goods.

The relationship has become even more important since the escalation of Western sanctions against Russia. China has emerged as a major market for Russian energy, while Chinese manufacturers have expanded their presence in the Russian market.

The two countries have also increased the use of their own currencies in bilateral trade, reducing their dependence on the US dollar.

Meanwhile, China and India have a very large trading relationship despite their strategic rivalry and continuing tensions along their border.

The trade, however, is heavily tilted towards China. Indian industries depend significantly on Chinese machinery, electronics, APIs, solar equipment and other industrial inputs.

This has resulted in a large trade deficit for India. While Indian exports to China have increased in some categories, they remain much smaller than Chinese exports to India.

The relationship therefore presents a difficult balancing act for New Delhi: China is an important source of industrial inputs, but India's dependence on Chinese goods also contributes significantly to its overall trade deficit.

India-Russia: Oil Drives The Relationship

The India-Russia trade relationship has changed dramatically since 2022, particularly because of the sharp increase in Indian purchases of Russian crude.

Discounted Russian oil became an important source of energy for Indian refiners, while India also imports commodities such as coal and fertilisers from Russia.

Bilateral trade consequently surged, with the two countries setting a target of $100 billion in annual trade by 2030.

But this growth has also created a major imbalance. India's imports from Russia have risen much faster than its exports, largely because of the scale of energy purchases.

The Currency Question

One of the biggest strategic questions surrounding these trade relationships is whether they can reduce dependence on the US dollar.

China and Russia have significantly increased the use of the renminbi and rouble for bilateral transactions. This has become particularly important for Moscow as Western sanctions have restricted its access to parts of the global financial system.

India and Russia have also experimented with alternative settlement mechanisms. These have included rupee accounts, UAE dirhams and other intermediary arrangements, particularly as both sides have sought ways to keep trade flowing despite sanctions-related restrictions.

The broader BRICS push for greater use of national currencies could potentially reduce currency-conversion costs and exposure to the dollar for some transactions.

However, moving away from the dollar is not straightforward. Differences in currency liquidity, payment infrastructure, financial regulations and trade balances can make local-currency settlement difficult to scale.

A Triangle With Unequal Relationships

The China-Russia-India relationship is therefore not a unified economic partnership. Each side has a very different relationship with the other two.

China-Russia trade is largely built around Russian commodities and Chinese manufactured goods. China-India trade is much more dependent on Chinese industrial supplies, while India-Russia trade has been transformed by India's purchases of Russian energy.

These relationships also contain significant imbalances. India runs a large deficit with China and Russia, while Russia's economic relationship with China is heavily influenced by its role as an energy and commodity supplier.

This creates both an opportunity and a challenge for BRICS. The three countries have enough economic weight to shape trade within the wider grouping, but their very different interests and persistent trade imbalances could make deeper economic integration difficult.

The future of this China-Russia-India trade triangle will therefore depend not only on how much they trade with each other, but also on whether they can diversify what they buy and sell, expand market access and build payment systems that work beyond the traditional dollar-based framework.