India's Merchandise Exports to New FTA Partners Could Reach $1 Tn by 2035: Report

India's merchandise exports to countries covered under its recent free trade agreements (FTAs) could reach $1 trillion by 2035, according to a study released by industry body ASSOCHAM. The report said improved market access, lower tariffs and supportive trade policies are expected to create significant export opportunities for Indian businesses over the next decade.

The study, titled "India's Recent FTAs: Trillion-Dollar Export Opportunities," projects that exports to India's nine recent FTA partners could increase from $233 billion in 2025 to $511 billion by 2030, before doubling again to $1 trillion by 2035.

According to ASSOCHAM, these trading partners currently account for around 39% of India's total trade, highlighting their growing importance for the country's export strategy. The report added that India's share in imports across these markets remains below 2%, indicating substantial room for expansion.

Recent FTAs Expected to Expand Market Access

ASSOCHAM said India's recent trade agreements have opened access to several developed and high-value markets by reducing or eliminating tariffs on a large share of traded goods. The report noted that partner countries have offered tariff liberalisation of 99% or more of trade value in several agreements, creating better opportunities for Indian exporters.

Since 2020, India has concluded trade agreements with Mauritius, the UAE, Australia, the European Free Trade Association (EFTA), the United Kingdom, Oman, New Zealand and the European Union. The report also included the proposed interim trade framework with the United States, although the contours of that agreement are yet to be finalised.

According to the study, stronger market access, along with trade facilitation measures introduced by the government, could help Indian exporters expand their presence in these markets over the coming years.

Manufacturing Sectors to Benefit

The report identified engineering goods, electronics, pharmaceuticals, textiles, gems and jewellery, automotive products and processed foods among the sectors expected to benefit the most from the recent FTAs.

ASSOCHAM said higher exports could strengthen domestic manufacturing, encourage fresh investments, create employment and support foreign exchange earnings. It added that expanding India's presence in overseas markets would also help diversify export destinations and improve the country's long-term trade prospects.

The study observed that India's top 100 export products currently account for only a small share of imports across these partner countries, suggesting there is considerable scope to increase exports if Indian businesses improve competitiveness and take advantage of the market access provided under the agreements.

Industry Calls for Greater Competitiveness

Speaking at the report launch, ASSOCHAM Secretary General Saurabh Sanyal said India's recent FTAs have the potential to become a key driver of export growth if supported by the right policies and sectoral focus. He said higher exports could contribute to manufacturing growth, investment and job creation.

ASSOCHAM Chief Economist S.P. Sharma said improved market access, supportive trade policies and resilient global trade conditions could help India's exports to these partner countries increase by more than $250 billion, reaching $511 billion by 2030.

Meanwhile, IIFT Vice Chancellor Prof. R.M. Joshi said free trade agreements have become increasingly important amid changing global trade dynamics and policy uncertainty. He noted that the India-EU agreement marks a significant milestone by providing access to multiple European markets through a single trade deal.