India-Russia At BRICS: Will Oil, AI And Defence Forge A New Partnership?

The 18th BRICS Summit, scheduled for September 12–13, 2026, in New Delhi, comes at a significant juncture for India-Russia ties. As BRICS marks two decades since its formation, New Delhi’s chairship is focused on resilience, innovation, cooperation and sustainability — themes that dovetail with Moscow’s search for new markets, investment and technology partnerships amid continuing Western sanctions.

For India and Russia, the summit is likely to bring an increasingly broad economic relationship into focus: from energy and trade settlements to manufacturing, technology, defence and connectivity.

From Oil Trade To A Broader Economic Partnership

The biggest transformation in India-Russia economic ties since the Ukraine conflict has been in energy. Russia accounted for only about 2% of India’s crude oil imports in FY2021, but its share rose to 35% in FY2025, making it India’s largest crude supplier.

Imports of Russian crude crossed $50 billion in FY2025, according to the Rubix Country Insights report.

The shift has also fundamentally altered Russia’s export geography. Asia accounted for nearly 95% of Russia’s crude oil exports in 2024, compared with 43.1% in 2021, with India and China emerging as its principal buyers.

But the trade relationship remains heavily imbalanced. Bilateral goods trade rose at a 70% CAGR, from $8.1 billion in FY2021 to $68.7 billion in FY2025.

Yet India’s trade deficit with Russia widened nearly 20-fold, from $2.8 billion to $58.9 billion over the same period.

Both countries have set a $100-billion bilateral trade target by 2030, making greater Indian exports and market access an important part of the next phase of the relationship.

The summit could therefore put greater emphasis on moving beyond an energy-heavy trade basket.

Can Russian Investment Support Make In India?

That conversation comes just days before Innoprom.India, the joint industrial exposition being held in New Delhi from September 9–11.

Russian companies from aviation, energy, nuclear technology, heavy industry, mining and technology are expected to explore opportunities to participate more deeply in India’s manufacturing expansion.

The timing is significant because Russia itself is facing weaker growth, constrained investment and continuing restrictions on access to Western technology.

Rubix projects Russian GDP growth at around 1% in 2026, after 4.3% growth in 2024, while noting that sanctions and falling investment are weighing on productive capacity.

That creates an incentive for Moscow to deepen economic relationships with non-Western partners — and India offers a large manufacturing and consumer market.

There are already signs of movement. The India-Russia Working Group on Priority Investment Projects agreed on six new strategic projects in 2025, with more than 80 businesses participating. Russian FDI equity inflows into India also more than tripled in FY2025 to $18.45 million, from $5.16 million a year earlier.

Technology Transfer Could Be The Bigger Story

For New Delhi, the more important question may be whether Russian engagement can translate into technology transfer and local manufacturing, rather than simply more imports.

A key example is civil aviation. HAL signed an MoU with Russia’s United Aircraft Corporation in October 2025 to locally produce the SJ-100 commuter aircraft, securing manufacturing rights for the Indian market.

Russia has also proposed offering the Su-57E stealth fighter with technology transfer and co-production at HAL’s Nashik facility. Separately, India and Russia formalised a protocol to co-develop engines for twin-engine unmanned combat aircraft.

These initiatives build on a much older defence-industrial relationship. HAL has produced more than 200 Su-30MKIs under licence, while India and Russia jointly developed the BrahMos missile system, in which India holds a 50.5% stake and Russia 49.5%.

Defence is therefore likely to remain central, but increasingly through co-development, licensed production and technology absorption rather than a straightforward buyer-seller relationship.

AI, Computing And The New BRICS Technology Agenda

The India-Russia conversation will also sit within India’s wider technology agenda for BRICS.

New Delhi is expected to push cooperation among BRICS members in artificial intelligence, high-performance computing, quantum technologies and semiconductor materials.

One proposed initiative, the Global Research Advanced Infrastructure Network (GRAIN), would provide researchers across member countries access to high-performance computing and supercomputing resources.

India is also working on a digital science and research repository to facilitate sharing of datasets and research capabilities, particularly in advanced materials and nanostructures.

A proposed Startup Innovation Fund and Incubator Network could similarly connect chip-design and deep-tech startups across BRICS economies.

For Russia, participation in such initiatives could offer access to emerging technology ecosystems and research partnerships at a time when Western sanctions have restricted access to advanced technologies.

Rubix notes that Russia's import structure has adapted by diversifying suppliers, but remains constrained in high-tech and industrial segments.

Payments And Corridors Could Underpin The Next Phase

Financial and logistical connectivity will be another crucial piece. More than 90% of India-Russia trade is reportedly settled in rupees and roubles, reducing dependence on the US dollar.

Meanwhile, the International North-South Transport Corridor, Chennai–Vladivostok Eastern Maritime Corridor and Northern Sea Route are being developed to diversify trade routes and reduce logistics costs.

The Chennai–Vladivostok route became operational in November 2024 and can cut cargo transit time between India and Russia’s Far East by up to about 16 days.

An India-EAEU FTA could further help address the trade imbalance by improving market access for Indian exporters and supporting MSMEs. Terms of Reference for negotiations were signed in August 2025.

For India, the BRICS summit is thus an opportunity to push Russia ties beyond the oil boom that transformed bilateral trade after 2022.

For Moscow, deeper engagement with India could provide investment, manufacturing partnerships, technology cooperation and a major Asian market as Western restrictions continue to reshape its economy.