India Monsoon Rainfall Nearly 40% Below Normal, El Niño Raises Weather Concerns

Monsoon rainfall across India fell nearly 40% below normal on Wednesday, according to data from the India Meteorological Department (IMD). This sharp shortfall is increasing pressure on agriculture, industry and water resources at the start of the season.

El Niño conditions are also strengthening, a climate pattern driven by unusually warm Pacific Ocean waters that typically suppress rainfall over parts of Asia, including India. This is raising the risk of extended dry spells across several regions.

The June–September monsoon season provides the bulk of India’s annual rainfall and plays a key role in crops such as rice, soybean and cotton, as well as energy and industrial activity. A weak start has already begun affecting sowing and early farm operations.

India is among the world’s largest producers of rice, sugar and cotton, and a poor harvest could increase the risk of trade or export restrictions if rainfall conditions fail to improve.

Rainfall Deficit Widens

El Niño conditions are developing in the tropical Pacific, according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). The agency has estimated an 80% probability of El Niño forming between June and August 2026, rising to near or above 90% through November.

US scientists expect the event to be among the strongest in recent years, with models indicating abnormal dryness could persist through July and August, particularly across northwest and central India.

“We do not currently see a signal strong enough to recover the existing national rainfall deficit back towards normal,” said Takahisa Nishikawa, senior decision support meteorologist at Atmospheric G2. He added that any improvement is likely to be temporary or regional rather than a full recovery.

The poor monsoon start is already visible in crop-weather alerts, with severe dry warnings emerging for soybean and groundnut growing regions, according to Fergus Keatinge of Marcus Weather Inc.

“The unseasonal dryness may persist into July, likely delaying soybean seeding and shortening the growing season,” he said.

Farmers are currently in the peak planting period, and there is still time for conditions to recover if rainfall improves. However, early forecasts suggest this could be the weakest monsoon in more than a decade.

Water Restrictions Begin

In response to the dry conditions, Mumbai’s water authority has suspended supplies to construction sites for the first time in 12 years. It has also reduced water allocation to businesses and factories and stopped supplying swimming pools.

Meteorologists say rainfall may improve slightly next week due to moist southwesterly winds, helping the monsoon move forward into early July. However, they expect overall conditions to stay weak after that.

UN Secretary-General António Guterres has warned that El Niño is a serious climate signal, saying it could make extreme weather around the world more intense