$20 trillion target requires faster growth: India would need foundational rupee growth of 14.2% and annual rupee appreciation of 3-3.6%, implying roughly 18% annual nominal dollar growth.
Equirus sees services rising from 54% of GDP to more than 65%, with a proposed National GCC policy targeting 5,000 GCCs and 20-25 million jobs.
The 20-step agenda includes bringing fuel under GST, boosting state capex, listing the Railways, creating a sovereign wealth fund, strengthening corporate bond markets and easing tax-related working-capital constraints.
Equirus Outlines 20-Step Reform Path to $20trn Economy
India could reach a $20 trillion economy by 2036 if it sustains faster nominal growth and implements a 20-point reform agenda focused on services, urbanisation, human capital, capital markets and private investment, according to Equirus
Summary
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India can achieve a $20trn economy by 2036 if the government implements a 20-step reform agenda, domestic brokerage firm Equirus stated.
The ambitious target demands boosting foundational rupee growth to 14.2 per cent and keeping a steady yearly rupee appreciation of 3-3.6 per cent. This implies a nominal dollar growth rate of about 18 per cent annually, significantly higher than the past trend of 10-11 per cent.
Reaching $20trn from the current $3.7trn base requires expanding the economy 5.5 times, ANI reported. Historically, India required 67 years post-independence to generate its initial $2trn in GDP. The country then nearly doubled its economic size in the decade following 2014.
Services Drive Future Growth
The makeup of this expansion is just as vital as its speed. Services must become the primary engine of growth.
The services sector needs to increase its share from 54 per cent of GDP, or roughly $2trn, to over 65 per cent, exceeding $11trn. Meanwhile, manufacturing faces constraints from global protectionism, and the share of agriculture will decline as urbanisation accelerates.
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Equirus proposed a National GCC policy to scale global capability centres from 1,800 to 5,000. This would create 20-25mn jobs and generate an economic impact of $470-600bn.
On the tourism front, targeted promotion could yield an extra $21bn annually in foreign exchange receipts.
Twenty Steps to Reform
The proposed 20-step agenda covers urban governance, services, human capital, capital markets and the real economy.
Key measures involve bringing fuel under the goods and services tax, enforcing state capex floors and listing the Railways. The brokerage firm also suggested establishing a sovereign wealth fund for India, broadening private educational infrastructure, stimulating private R&D and enhancing corporate bond markets.
Specific tax reforms would heavily ease working capital frictions. Eliminating advance taxes might free up Rs 10trn, while a uniform 5 per cent TDS might release an additional Rs 13.4trn.
These reforms carry a financial impact of yearly direct benefits of Rs 7.9trn compared to expenses of Rs 3.4trn, leaving a net gain of Rs 4.5trn.
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The report concluded that success ultimately relies on broad-based implementation instead of a solitary policy tool.