A potentially record-breaking El Niño is taking shape in the Pacific Ocean, with a 69% probability that the event could surpass the strength of any El Niño recorded since 1950, according to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
El Niño Could Break 70-Year Record: Why India Should Be Worried
NOAA sees a 69% chance of a record-strength El Niño this winter, but the delayed impact of the climate phenomenon could mean India's 2026 monsoon largely escapes its worst effects
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The climate phenomenon is expected to intensify through the remainder of 2026 and reach its peak during the Northern Hemisphere winter.
For India, however, its most significant effects may be felt only after the southwest monsoon season has largely drawn to a close.
El Niño's influence on the Indian Ocean and weather systems around the subcontinent generally emerges with a delay of several weeks.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has also maintained that the developing phenomenon has not materially affected the current monsoon so far.
El Niño Could Become Historic
In its latest El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) update, NOAA put the probability of a strong El Niño at 90% during the Northern Hemisphere winter.
More significantly, the agency estimated a 69% chance that the October-December 2026 period could see an El Niño stronger than any event recorded since 1950.
NOAA said the phenomenon strengthened during July and is expected to intensify further in the coming months. A stronger event would increase the likelihood of weather patterns typically associated with El Niño, the agency said.
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El Niño represents the warm phase of the ENSO climate cycle. It develops when ocean temperatures and atmospheric conditions across the tropical Pacific undergo significant changes, disrupting normal weather patterns across several parts of the world.
The phenomenon is often associated with increased risks of drought, extreme heat and below-normal rainfall in affected regions.
What Does El Niño Mean For India?
El Niño has historically been associated with weaker southwest monsoons in India. However, the relationship is not automatic, as India's rainfall is influenced by several other atmospheric and oceanic conditions.
The 2026 monsoon has already delivered below-normal rainfall. India received 491.8 mm of rainfall between June 1 and August 13, about 12% below normal, according to available data.
June rainfall was particularly weak, registering a 35.4% deficit, while July rainfall was broadly around normal levels. The IMD has forecast below-normal rainfall for August and the remainder of the monsoon season.
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Despite the developing El Niño, its timing could limit its impact on the current monsoon.
Why Timing Matters
El Niño does not immediately translate into changes in Indian weather. Its influence on the Indian Ocean and surrounding regions generally emerges after a lag of around 40-45 days.
That delay is important this year. By the time the effects of the strengthening El Niño become more pronounced, India's southwest monsoon could already be approaching its scheduled withdrawal date of September 30.
This means the developing phenomenon may have a greater bearing on post-monsoon and winter weather than on the closing stages of the current southwest monsoon.
Positive IOD Could Offer Some Relief
Another factor that could moderate El Niño's impact is the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), a climate phenomenon involving differences in sea-surface temperatures across the western and eastern Indian Ocean.
The IOD is currently neutral, but the IMD expects it to turn positive towards the end of the monsoon season.
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A positive IOD can, under certain conditions, offset some of the negative influence that El Niño has historically exerted on India's monsoon.
This makes the eventual impact of the developing El Niño less straightforward than simply assuming a weak monsoon.
Three Phases Of ENSO
ENSO consists of three broad phases: El Niño, La Niña and neutral conditions.
The classification is primarily based on sea-surface temperature anomalies in the equatorial Pacific, alongside associated atmospheric changes.
An El Niño event is declared when the relevant three-month average sea-surface temperature anomaly crosses the prescribed threshold.
With NOAA now projecting a potentially exceptional El Niño, its evolution will be closely watched for its implications for India's weather, agriculture, commodity prices and the broader economy.
However, the lag in its effects and the possible emergence of a positive IOD mean that its impact on the 2026 southwest monsoon could remain limited.