The World Bank warns that extreme heat could reduce South Asia's GDP by 7% by 2050 and result in annual losses equivalent to 31 million full-time jobs without urgent climate adaptation.
Rising temperatures could undermine India's Viksit Bharat 2047 ambitions by affecting productivity, labour markets and urban livability as the country expands its manufacturing base.
Investing in climate-resilient infrastructure, affordable cooling technologies and stronger Heat Action Plans could protect economic growth while creating millions of jobs, the report said.
Can India Achieve Viksit Bharat 2047? World Bank Warns Extreme Heat Could Derail Growth
World Bank warns rising temperatures are emerging as a structural threat to jobs, productivity and long-term economic growth across South Asia
intense summer heat during Extreme weather conditions in India
Summary
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Without urgent adaptation measures, extreme heat might reduce the GDP of South Asia by 7 per cent by 2050. This represents the steepest projected economic loss of any developing region globally, the World Bank stated.
Rising temperatures threaten to result in annual losses equivalent to 31mn full-time jobs across the region. The warnings feature in a new World Bank report titled 'A Livable Future: Protecting Jobs and Growth from Extreme Heat in South Asia's Cities'.
The findings categorise rising heat as a significant structural danger to job creation and sustained economic expansion rather than a mere seasonal emergency.
"South Asia's cities are central to the region's future, but rising temperatures are putting jobs, livelihoods, and economic growth at risk," Johannes Zutt, World Bank Vice President for South Asia, said.
Threat to India's Growth
The findings arrive as India pursues its 'Viksit Bharat 2047' roadmap. This ambitious long-term plan includes broadening the manufacturing sector via 'Make in India' and fortifying international supply networks.
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Escalating temperatures threaten these strategic goals. Rising temperatures could undermine these efforts by becoming "a structural constraint on productivity, livability, and economic growth", particularly as cities continue to expand, the report stated.
South Asia is expected to add around 280mn working-age people by 2050. The associated heat risks threaten this demographic dividend by lowering earnings.
"Heat reduces productivity in existing work, discourages the investment that would create new jobs, and shifts labour demand toward cooling and heat-resilient industries," the World Bank stated.
Opportunities for Climate Adaptation
Policymakers retain options to build heat resilience. Roughly 70 per cent of India's required mid-century urban infrastructure remains unbuilt.
This allows cities to incorporate climate resilience into upcoming residential, transit, and city planning projects right from their inception, the report informed.
To tackle this, India is preparing the Alleviating Heat Stress by Enhancing Production of Affordable Cooling Devices (AHEAD) programme with World Bank support.
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Expanding domestic manufacturing of affordable cooling equipment through such initiatives could create nearly 3.7mn jobs by 2040.
To maintain competitiveness, the World Bank recommended gathering both state and private funding to advance eco-friendly cooling solutions. The global institution also advised governments to bolster Heat Action Plans, broaden advance alert networks, and safeguard at-risk labourers.