Gold Rush Continues as Weak Dollar, Tariff Uncertainty Lifts Prices to New Peak

Basking in the glory of rising global uncertainty amid Trump’s tariff flip-flops, a raging US-China trade war and softening dollar, gold prices traced a new record high in the domestic futures market, yet again on April 16.

Gold rates surged to a record high of Rs 95,190 per 10 grams on the Multi Commodity Exchange on April 16, moving past the Rs 95,000-mark for the first time ever. The strong upmove in gold prices tracked the gains seen in the global spot prices, where the yellow metal also hit a record high today.

Much like the yellow metal, silver prices also clocked in solid gains in the domestic futures market, rising nearly 2% today.

The rush to buy these safer assets was spurred by increasing trade tensions and policy uncertainty, which has cast dark clouds over global economic growth. These headwinds have also weighed down heavily on the US dollar in recent times, dragging it below the 100-mark, making gold much more attractive for non-dollar denominated economies.

The yellow metal is often touted as a safe haven bet in times of geopolitical and economic turmoil, a trend that has been seen multiple times year-to-date. Since the Trump administration took office in January, the yellow metal has surged 25% year-to-date, clocking multiple peaks, one after the other.

Top investments banks also hold a bullish outlook on gold prices for the coming quarters, driven by increased investor interest in gold-backed exchange-traded funds and continued accumulation by central banks. Goldman Sachs has projected that gold prices could surge to $4,000 an ounce by mid-2026.

As for now, Kaynat Chainwala, AVP-Commodity Research, Kotak Securities believes that investment demand for gold will likely continue to strengthen, an expectation that is strengthened by data from the World Gold Council showing that Chinese gold ETFs recorded robust inflows in the month thus far.

“Today gold prices surged to a record high, driven by growing trade war concerns after the US government tightened export rules to China. Trump also announced an investigation into whether tariffs are needed on critical minerals, further fueling market anxiety. Besides, investors are eyeing US retail sales data and a speech from Fed Chair Jerome Powell for further clues on the direction of monetary policy,” Chainwala added.