SBI Securities flagged customer concentration, supplier dependence, high working capital needs and geographic concentration as the key risks in Juniper Green Energy's IPO.
The ₹1,800-crore issue remained under-subscribed at 47% after Day 2, with the retail portion booked 22%.
The IPO's grey market premium has slipped to ₹2, implying a muted listing gain of around 1%.
Juniper Green Energy IPO: Four Key Risks Investors Should Watch Before Bidding
SBI Securities highlighted dependence on two key customers, supplier concentration and high working capital needs as major risks, while the ₹1,800-crore IPO remained under-subscribed
Juniper Green Energy IPO: Four Key Risks Investors Should Watch Before Bidding
Summary
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The ₹1,800-crore Juniper Green Energy IPO entered its third and final day of bidding on Monday, with SBI Securities highlighting several business risks that investors should consider before subscribing to the issue.
The brokerage said the company's dependence on a limited number of power off-takers, concentrated supplier base, high working capital requirements and geographical concentration of assets could weigh on its future financial performance.
Meanwhile, investor response remained muted. As of the end of Day 2, the IPO was subscribed 47%, while the retail investor portion was booked 22%.
Heavy Dependence On Two Customers
According to SBI Securities, Juniper Green Energy derives a significant share of its revenue from just two customers — Maharashtra State Electricity Distribution Company (MSEDCL) and Gujarat Urja Vikas Nigam (GUVNL).
The two entities together contributed 97% of revenue in FY24, 91.1% in FY25 and 86.1% in FY26. Any reduction in power procurement, payment delays or deterioration in the financial health of these customers could adversely affect the company's cash flows and earnings.
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Supplier Concentration And Working Capital Risks
The brokerage also pointed to the company's reliance on a handful of suppliers for key equipment such as solar modules and wind turbine generators.
The top five suppliers accounted for 81.4% of procurement purchases in FY24, 71.3% in FY25 and 77.6% in FY26, leaving the company exposed to supply-chain disruptions and higher equipment costs.
SBI Securities further noted that the renewable energy business is capital-intensive and requires substantial working capital for project development, equipment procurement, debt servicing and maintenance. Any delays in payments from customers, project execution or funding could impact cash flows and profitability.
Geographic Concentration A Key Concern
Another risk highlighted by the brokerage is the concentration of Juniper Green Energy's operational and under-construction projects across Gujarat, Maharashtra, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh.
Any adverse regulatory changes, policy shifts, extreme weather events or natural disasters in these states could materially affect the company's operations and power generation.
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GMP Slips To 1%
The grey market premium (GMP) has also weakened as the issue nears its close.
The latest GMP stood at ₹2 per share, down sharply from around ₹18 at the beginning of the IPO. Based on the upper price band of ₹225, the current premium indicates an estimated listing price of around ₹226, implying a listing gain of about 1%.
The IPO is entirely a fresh issue of 8 crore equity shares with no offer-for-sale component. It closes for subscription on August 3, with the basis of allotment expected on August 4 and the shares likely to list on the BSE and NSE on August 6.