Gold Took Off, Silver Missed the Bus: Perfect Setup to Catch Pace?

While gold is basking in its glory at record highs, its mate—the white metal, silver is fighting hard to catch pace. However, not just technical signals, but market experts too anticipate a turnaround for the two precious metals, with gold likely to take a breather as silver catches pace.

Gold futures on the Multi Commodity Exchange delivered over 22% returns since the start of 2025, far outpacing the 9% returns seen in silver futures. On the basis of spot market price, the commodities have rallied over 26% and 13%, respectively. The yellow metal prices recently crossed the Rs 1 lakh per 10 grams-mark in the Indian retail market.

The gap is also visible on COMEX, where gold futures are currently trading at $3,324.55, whereas silver futures are at $33.21. International gold prices surged over 25% in 2025, according to data from investing.com, fuelled by growing demand for safe-haven assets in the wake of Trump’s tariff actions. However, silver has gained only 14.5% this year.

With its recent bull run, gold as a commodity has reaffirmed its position as a safe-haven asset, especially in the backdrop of raging global uncertainties. Silver however, hasn’t managed to garner the same optimism from investors, as reflected in its slow-paced growth.

“In our view, silver’s ‘failure to launch’ is mainly due to the macro and geopolitical drivers of the past couple of years being primarily supportive of gold’s more widely accepted quasi-monetary properties,” The Silver Institute had said in its World Silver Survey 2025.

Now while silver has under-performed its peer, the yellow metal by a far margin till now, the Street is now turning bullish on a change in pace of the two metals. To that effect, analysts now expect silver prices to rise faster than gold in the coming years. Following such a rally, gold could take a breather, giving way to silver to outperform on returns front. Various reports quoted Ajay Kedia, director at Kedia Advisory, expecting on similar lines.

Another positive trigger working in the background for the white metal is the gold-to-silver ratio, a gauge which compares the prices of the two metals. The ratio has now gone past the 100-mark, as the gold prices have surged amid global uncertainties and silver lagged due to sluggish industrial demand. This is its highest level since the Covid-19, when the yellow metal shot up and the ratio was at its all time high of 126.5. The 2024 average ratio was 84.8. The gold-to-silver ratio is a measure of how many ounces of silver are needed to buy one ounce of gold. 

The ratio has moved past the 100 level only three times in the last 50 years, including this time. Whenever the ratio has surpassed the 100-mark, there has been a strong recovery in silver prices as it tends to play catch-up with gold.

Higher gold-to-silver ratio should help, as some investors might view the white metal as undervalued, Silver Institute had said in the survey. “However, if there are fewer US policy shocks, an end to Fed rate cutting is in sight and the US avoids a recession, demand for defensive assets should eventually start to slow later this year.”

So, is this it for gold? No further rally expected?

Even though silver is expected to take on the driver’s seat going ahead, gold is also likely to continue with its party, albeit with a slightly sombre mood.  Apurva Sheth, head of market perspectives and research, at SAMCO Securities said the S&P 500-to-gold ratio has recently broken below its 10-year moving average. This ratio indicates equity market dominance versus hard assets. This ratio’s breakdown indicates that gold is once again emerging as a store of value in a world of overvalued equities and geopolitical unease.

“In the last 50 years, such a breakdown has occurred only thrice. And each time, it marked the beginning of a major bull run in gold,” Sheth said. Earlier, gold rallied to the tune of 2-3 times. “For investors, this is not just a technical signal—it's a strategic alert,” he added.

Motilal Oswal also echoed similar optimism and continues to maintain ‘a buy on dips’ stance on gold. Investors can start accumulating near support zone for the long term targets, the brokerage said in a report.

While some cool off in gold prices cannot be ruled out after its sharp rally over the last couple of months, there are both positives and negatives for gold prices at this juncture, said Manav Modi, senior analyst, commodity research at Motilal Oswal. Tariff tensions, higher inflation expectations, rise in slower growth concerns, rate cut expectations, geo-political tensions could act as tailwinds for gold, whereas any updates regarding ease off in above mentioned uncertainties could put further pressure on bullion.

Likewise for the white metal, media reports quoted Ramesh Varakhedkar of ICICI Securities expecting silver to cross the $35-mark and potentially reaching $40 by the end of the year.

Silver investment has faced conflicting forces so far in 2025 due to its dual role as a precious and industrial metal. Worries about escalating trade wars and a correction in US equities, along with recessionary fears and geopolitical tensions have all raised the need for portfolio diversification, and silver serves this purpose.