Gold Prices On See-Saw Ride, ICICI Predicts More Swings This Year

Gold rally has been witnessing a back-and-forth movement lately, with the retail price rising high to Rs 1 lakh per 10 grams and then falling down soon close to Rs 95,000. As the yellow metal shows its volatile nature, investors suggest a “short-term correction” of declining prices in the commodities market.

The ICICI Bank Global Markets, as quoted by ANI, predicted that gold prices are likely to fluctuate between $3,050 and $3,250 per ounce (approximately Rs 2.5-2.7 lakh per 28 grams) in the second quarter of 2025.

During January to April quarter, gold prices increased nearly 25% this year. However, the prices of yellow metal declined around 4% over the past fortnight, reflecting easing concerns over global trade conflicts and Trump’s tariff pause.

The World Gold Council data showed that investment demand for gold soared in the first quarter of 2025, marking a sharp 170% jump compared to the same period last year.

The spike was fueled by investor anxiety over policy unpredictability under the Trump administration and heightened trade tensions. But as diplomatic relations began to stabilise, market jitters eased—bringing some cooling to gold’s upward momentum, the report said.

What Else ICICI Sees in Gold?

Besides this, the ICICI Bank report also predicted that the slowdown in central bank gold purchases seems to be “temporary”. It also noted that the trend of subdued jewellery demand is likely to persist in the near term.

“We would not rule out the prospect of a mild correction setting in place in the near term, particularly if the US is able to move forward with making trade deals with the rest of the world,” the report stated as quoted by news agency ANI.

On Saturday, gold prices on MCX stood at Rs 92,480 per 10 grams in the Indian market. Gold prices have held relatively stable, reflecting subdued global trends while gaining modest support from the strengthening of the Indian rupee against the US dollar.

Meanwhile, gold imports have eased, dropping to $3.1 billion in April from $4.5 billion in March—a decline that coincides with softer jewellery demand amid elevated price levels.

Moving ahead, the report expects Indian gold prices to maintain an upward trajectory --- ranging between Rs 92,500 and Rs 94,500 per 10 grams in the second quarter of 2025. And later this year, the price range may reach Rs 96,000 to Rs 98,000 per 10 grams.