Oil & Gas Development Timelines Triple, Increasing Financial Risks

Oil and gas fields are currently taking three times longer to transition from discovery to production than they did during the industry’s most prolific decades. According to a report by Global Energy Monitor (GEM), projects that began operating in 2025 required an average of 15.1 years to come online. This represents a significant increase from the 1960–1980 period, when the average lead time was approximately 4.9 years.

Rising Development Timelines

Data from the Global Oil and Gas Extraction Tracker (GOGET) indicates that the longest development cycles occurred between 2010 and 2020, averaging nearly sixteen years. In 2019, the average lead time peaked at 20.7 years, a spike driven by several delayed projects in Russia. These prolonged timelines reflect an industry shift toward more technically demanding environments. As easily accessible reservoirs are depleted, extraction efforts have moved toward smaller, deeper, and higher-pressure fields. Furthermore, offshore developments typically require three more years to reach production than onshore projects.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has identified these lengthening timelines as a factor that increases project exposure to regulatory changes, cost overruns, and shifts in global demand. Under the IEA’s Net Zero Emissions scenario, investment in upstream oil and gas is expected to decline significantly over time. Consequently, projects discovered today may not begin generating revenue until the late 2030s or beyond, entering a policy environment where many countries have committed to cleaner energy systems.

Scott Zimmerman, GOGET project manager and co-author of the report, described these 15-year cycles as "long-dated bets on a very uncertain future". He noted that as oil companies face tighter profit margins and fluctuating prices, the financial risk of these complex projects increases. The report suggests that continued high-cost investment in these fields could lead to stranded assets. Zimmerman stated that directing spending toward renewable energy and demand reduction has the potential to provide more reliable energy security.

Energy Transition Pressures

Despite elevated geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty, this tenth edition of the International Energy Agency's (IEA) World Energy Investment report shows that capital flows to the energy sector are set to rise in 2025 to $3.3trn, a 2% rise in real terms on 2024. Around $2.2trn is going collectively to renewables, nuclear, grids, storage, low-emissions fuels, efficiency and electrification, twice as much as the $1.1trn going to oil, natural gas and coal.