India’s commercial vehicle industry is projected to post a moderate 4–6% YoY rise in wholesale volumes in FY27, according to ICRA.
Growth will be led by buses at 7–9% and light trucks at 6–8%, with medium and heavy trucks lagging at 1–3%.
Infrastructure spending, freight demand and fleet replacement will offset pressures from fuel costs and financing constraints.
Domestic CV Industry to See Moderate Growth of 4-6% in FY27: ICRA
The broadened base of FY26 is likely to have some bearing on the growth momentum in FY27
Commercial vehicle maker Ashok Leyland File Photo
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Indian commercial vehicles industry is expected to register a moderate YoY growth of 4-6% in wholesale volumes in FY27 with the broadened base of last fiscal likely to have some bearing on the growth momentum of this year, ratings agency ICRA said on Friday.
While medium and heavy commercial vehicles (trucks) and light commercial vehicles (trucks) segments are expected to witness a YoY volume growth of 1-3% and 6-8%, respectively, the buses segment is likely to see a 7-9% YoY growth over the fiscal, ICRA said in a report.
"ICRA expects the domestic CV industry to register a moderate YoY growth of 4-6% in wholesale volumes in FY2027," it added.
The broadened base of FY26 is likely to have some bearing on the growth momentum in FY27, the ratings agency noted.
Continued infrastructure spending, improved freight movement and replacement demand are expected to support volumes, although rising fuel costs and financing challenges remain key headwinds, it stated.
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In May this year, the Indian Commercial Vehicle (CV) wholesale volumes reported a healthy 13.5% year-on-year (YoY) growth while witnessing a sequential decline of 1.1%, ICRA said.
The domestic CV retail volumes reported a moderate 5.3% YoY growth in May 2026, while recording a sequential decline of 18.3%.
In terms of geographical spread, CV retail volumes showed higher YoY growth in rural markets vis-a-vis urban counterparts, hinting at demand broadening for goods movement beyond metro regions, it noted.