Trump-Carney Trade War: How Canada’s Tariffs On US Goods Can Put Nearly $900 Bn At Risk

Canada has drawn up a list of 893 tariff line items on American goods that will face new counter-tariffs from September 8, 2026, adding another flashpoint to a trade war that is now weighing on nearly $900 billion of two-way commerce between the two countries.

Announced by Canada's Department of Finance on August 25, the retaliatory duties are set at 15%, 25% and 50%, pegged to match the tariffs the United States has placed on the same goods under its own Section 338 and Section 232 measures.

It is imported to note that the 893 figure refers to individual tariff codes rather than distinct, everyday products. A large share of the list consists of the same item split into several codes by size, grade, processing state or material — cod, for instance, appears under separate codes depending on whether it is fresh, frozen, smoked, dried or salted.

A rough analysis of the 893 tariff lines shows that the schedule covers over 150 different categories of goods, spread across 24 broad tariff chapters.

Why Canada Is Retaliating

Washington decided to impose a 50% tariff on $27.6 billion worth of Canadian goods, which came into force on August 22, 2026.

In retaliation, Ottawa has said it will match the US Section 338 tariffs "dollar for dollar," with the new measures covering an equivalent $27.6 billion in imports from the US.

While the current tariffs only affect $27.6 billion worth of goods from each side, the tensions could spill over to affect the overall bilateral trade between the two countries.

Overall US-Canada Bilateral Trade At Risk

The US and Canada share one of the world's largest trading relationships, with deeply integrated supply chains in autos, energy, agriculture and manufacturing, meaning a prolonged tariff fight could raise costs for businesses and consumers on both sides of the border.

The broader bilateral relationship could now face a test. US goods and services trade with Canada — exports plus imports combined — totalled an estimated $872.3 billion in 2025, down 4.6% ($42.1 billion) from 2024, according to the data from the Office of US Trade Representative.

Goods trade alone (exports plus imports) came to an estimated $715.5 billion in 2025. US goods exports to Canada stood at $333.6 billion, down 4.8% ($17.0 billion) from the previous year, while US goods imports from Canada totalled $381.9 billion, down 7.2% ($29.8 billion).

That left the US with a goods trade deficit of $48.3 billion with Canada in 2025 — a 21% decrease ($12.9 billion) compared with 2024, per USTR.

On services, the picture runs the other way. US services trade with Canada totalled an estimated $156.8 billion in 2025. US services exports to Canada rose 1.9% ($1.7 billion) to $92.3 billion, while US services imports from Canada rose 4.9% ($3.0 billion) to $64.5 billion.

This left the US with a services trade surplus of $27.7 billion, itself down 4.6% ($1.3 billion) from 2024, USTR figures show.

Combined, the goods deficit and services surplus leave the US with a comparatively modest net trade deficit with Canada of roughly $20.6 billion once both goods and services are accounted for.

The year-on-year decline across nearly every metric in 2025 — both exports and imports fell in goods trade even as services ticked up — coincides with the tariff escalation that has unfolded through the year.

Which Sectors Face Pressure

According to Canada's Department of Finance, the new tariffs are concentrated in steel and aluminium, dairy, appliances, agricultural equipment, pulp and paper, plastics and electronics — sectors it described as "most impacted by US tariffs."

In several steel and aluminium categories, tariffs already in place will double from 25% to 50% to align with US rates, while separate, pre-existing tariffs on American autos will remain in force, the government said.

A closer look at the schedule shows seafood is the single biggest contributor by line count, making up roughly a quarter of all 893 entries, followed closely by iron, steel and aluminium products, which together account for close to another third of the list.

Ottawa's statement noted that steel and aluminium represent the largest share of the $27.6 billion in trade covered by value, even though seafood contributes more individual tariff lines — a reflection of how narrowly seafood products are classified compared with steel.

Other products include live and frozen fish; cheese, curd and honey; perfumes, make-up and hair products; carpets and floor coverings; toilet paper and envelopes; clothing items; steel and aluminium wire, rods, pipes and foil; stoves, refrigerators and washing machines; smartphones and video-game consoles; and motorcycles, trailers and fishing rods.

How US Puts Tariffs On Canada

The Trump administration has already imposed 50% tariffs on more than 550 Canadian products, reportedly including natural honey, vegetable seeds and flower bulbs, alcoholic beverages, ice skates and other sporting goods, various household items, and smartphones.

Trump invoked Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930 — a Depression-era law never previously used — which allows tariffs of up to 50% on goods from countries deemed to discriminate against US businesses.

Trump has alleged that Canada discriminates against American autos, alcohol and dairy products.

Trump, Carney Trade Accusations

The tariff escalation follows a sharp deterioration in relations after Carney walked away from trade talks with the US late last week, as per a report by The Associated Press (AP).

Trump responded by telling Canadian leaders to "fall in line" or face tariffs "far WORSE" than current ones, and separately threatened fresh 50% tariffs on Canadian vehicles, auto parts and steel from January 1, 2027.

Carney, in turn, said the US trade demands during the failed negotiations showed Washington wanted to "destroy our major industries," naming autos, steel and aluminium, and rejected what he called an "attitude at the negotiation table that Canada is a subsidiary of the United States."

Ontario Premier Doug Ford said that in response, "everything is on the table," including cutting off electricity and critical mineral supplies to the US, and dismissed Trump's personal jibes at him, as per AP.

Ford, in an interview with CBS News, remarked, "He's treating us like we're Communist China here," adding that he is hopeful that both sides could reach an agreement, but cautioned that "no deal is better than a bad deal."