Trump Repeats His Claim That India Has Stopped Buying Russian Oil: Claims vs Reality

US President Donald Trump on Monday reemphasised his claim that India has stopped purchasing oil from Russia and added that Washington is going to “bring down the tariffs” imposed on New Delhi. “Well, right now, the tariffs are very high on India because of the Russian oil, and they’ve stopped doing the Russian oil,” ANI posted on X citing Trump. “It’s been reduced very substantially. We are going to bring the tariffs down... at some point,” he added.

At the beginning of August, Washington imposed 25% tariffs on Indian goods, followed by an additional 25% punitive tariff later that month for New Delhi’s purchase of oil from Russia. Trump has repeatedly targeted Russian oil purchasers, particularly India and China, who are the largest oil importers from Moscow. Trump alleges that these oil purchases are constantly fuelling the ongoing war in Ukraine, and by curbing Moscow’s

India Vows To Stop Russian Oil Imports: Reality So Far

According to the latest report by Bloomberg, India has scaled back on oil imports from Russia in December, reflecting the growing pressure from Western allies and sanctions amid progress in the India-US trade deal. As per the report, five big Indian refiners have not placed any orders for Russian oil for December, hinting at a shift in the diversification of India’s oil purchases. The five major Indian refiners — Reliance Industries Ltd., Bharat Petroleum Corp. Ltd., Hindustan Petroleum Corp. Ltd., Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Ltd., and HPCL-Mittal Energy Ltd. — account for two-thirds of India’s Russian oil buyers. Only Indian Oil Corp. and Nayara Energy Ltd. have bought some Russian crude for December, according to reports.

Refiners have looked for alternative exporters in West Asia to make up for the sanctioned Russian crude. State-owned refiners met with Saudi Aramco and Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. executives last week and have sought supply assurances, Bloomberg reported, citing sources.

The Ministry of External Affairs has time and again stated that the Indian government’s shift in any oil import policy will be largely driven by the national interests of consumers, though it aims to reduce its massive import bill. India is heavily dependent on other countries for its oil requirements, where over 85% of the total needs for the refining capacity of 5.2 million barrels per day are met from imported oil, a Reuters report said.

India imported around 4.7 million barrels per day in September; however, this was 160,000 bpd below the average Russian volumes imported until August, according to preliminary data by Kpler. In October, refiners looked elsewhere, including an import of 1.01 million bpd from Iraq, followed by 830,000 bpd from Saudi Arabia. The US stood as the fourth-largest supplier with 647,000 bpd. Even then, Russian oil imports remained at the top at 1.77 million bpd.

India-Russia: An Allyship Dating Back To The Cold War

India and Russia are long-standing allies, which can be traced back to the Cold War era. India is also the world’s third-largest oil-importing and consuming country, while Russia is one of the largest producers and exporters of crude. India used to buy two-thirds of its crude oil from West Asia, including countries such as Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. India turned to Moscow when Russian crude was being sold at a discounted price after Western countries imposed sanctions to disrupt the supply chain of its crude after Russia invaded Ukraine back in 2022. In the financial year ended March, India imported 88 million tonnes from Russia.

Can India Stop Imports From Russia?

Industry experts suggest completely stopping Russian oil imports is near impossible in the near term. Oil contracts are scheduled 4–6 weeks prior to delivery, meaning the shipments being delivered now would have been placed in early or mid-September, The Economic Times reported. The report added that deliveries till the end of November have been contracted, and refiners are likely to stop contracts and deliveries from Russia starting December, given the mounting pressure from the West and the Atlantic.

According to media reports, stopping Russian oil would force India to depend on limited alternatives, potentially triggering a sharp rise in global crude oil prices up to $100 per barrel amid rising demand and supply chain disruption.

“Analysts said there is a finite supply of crude oil on the planet. If one major supplier — Russia — is taken out of the equation, importers, likely India, will have to fall back on other suppliers. This increased demand for non-Russian oil will drive up prices, potentially stoking inflation globally,” a report by ET said.

Way Forward — What New Delhi Needs To Focus

According to a report by Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI), India needs to secure a rollback of the 25% punitive tariff to restore competitiveness and resume trade negotiations, which would yield a mutually beneficial bilateral pact with Washington. As per the report, the withdrawal of the 25% punitive tariff would ensure competitiveness in other sectors such as textiles, gems and jewellery, and pharmaceuticals, as the overall reduction in tariffs will pose less burden on India.

“Resume trade negotiations after tariffs come down to 25%. Once duties are rolled back, India should restart talks for a balanced trade agreement, aiming for parity with partners like the EU and targeting average industrial tariffs of about 15%,” the GTRI report said.