Steel Prices Hit 5-Year Low; Weak Trend Likely to Persist in Near Term: BigMint

Domestic steel prices have slumped to a five-year low, trading in the range of Rs 47,000-“48,000 per tonne impacted by multiple factors, including surging imports, as per market data from BigMint.

Hot rolled coil (HRC) prices are hovering around Rs 47,150 per tonne, while re-bar (TMT) is quoted in the range of Rs 46,500-47,000 per tonne in the wholesale market.

The last time prices were at such levels was in 2020, when HRC was trading at Rs 46,000/tonne levels and rebar at Rs 45,000/tonne amid the pandemic slowdown.

The current decline is largely attributed to weak export demand, rising imports, and an oversupply in the global market.

India's steel exports have fallen sharply, pressured by aggressive export pushes from countries like China, while imports are still active, despite several measures introduced by the government.

Falling prices amid rising imports is a matter of concern as inbound shipments are increasing despite several measures introduced by the government.

Taking a note of the situation, the Ministry of Steel has called for an "open house" to discuss issues related to steel imports with industry stakeholders on October 27 in the national capital.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has also noted that steel imports have seen a surge, largely driven by lower import prices. It has also called for policy support to boost the competitiveness of domestic steel production.

In September 2025, India imported 0.79 million tonnes (MT) of finished steel, up from 0.69 MT in August, marking the country's sixth consecutive month as a net steel importer.

Imports from Korea, Russia, and Indonesia increased, while shares of China, Japan, Vietnam, Thailand and Taiwan declined compared with September 2024.

During H1, FY26, India remained a net importer, with inbound shipments exceeding exports by 0.47 MT. This is despite a 40 per cent rise in export volumes to 4.43 MT.

Interestingly, while finished steel prices have plunged, raw material costs have not seen a corresponding decline. Iron ore prices remain quite stable at around Rs 4,800-5,000/tonne, which is a one-year low and coking coal is trading near USD 205/tonne CFR (cost and freight), a one-month low.

As per BigMint, mill margins are likely to come under pressure in the October-December period, given high input costs and weak realisations.

It added that steel prices are expected to stay subdued in the near term due to high inventories, sluggish demand, and seasonal weakness, although further corrections could trigger production cuts in the coming months.