Industrial Drag Pulls Down India’s Fuel Use for 3rd Straight Month; Monsoon Could Worsen Outlook

India's overall petroleum consumption declined marginally in April 2025 by 0.2% as compared to the same period last year, according to data from the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE). This marks the third straight month to witness year-on-year degrowth, even as April has historically seen strong growth.

"Over the past decade, April saw an average y-o-y growth in petro consumption of 5.7%," the CMIE noted.

The main drag on consumption came from the industrial segment, where demand for petroleum-based products shrank by a sharp 9.5% year-on-year. In contrast, the demand for auto-fuels, such as petrol and diesel, rose by 4.6%, helping cushion the overall decline.

Industrial petro products, which make up around 21.7% of total fuel consumption, saw broad declines in April. The five largest products — petroleum coke, naphtha, bitumen, furnace oil, and lubricating oil — together make up nearly all of industrial fuel use, and all recorded a drop in demand last month.

Among them, naptha recorded the steepest fall, the analysis noted. It registered a 23.5% decline compared to April last year. Lubricating oil dropped by 13.8%, furnace oil by 8.8%, bitumen by 4.7% and petroleum coke by 3.7%. Notably, the same downtrend was seen in March as well.

Light Diesel Oil (LDO) was the only industrial fuel which registered a strong growth of over 67%. However, it accounts for only 1% of the total industrial basket, thereby failing to significantly impact the overall growth of the segment.

This slowdown was also reflected in the broader economy as refinery output—which forms a significant part of the index—contracted by 4.5%, marking its sharpest fall since February 2021.

Auto-Fuel Growth Not Enough

Supported by steady demand for road transport, auto-fuel, which contributes 58.6% of total petroleum consumption, continued to grow. Petrol usage increased by 5%, while diesel—which makes up over 65 per cent of the auto-fuel category—rose by 4.4%, marking an improvement over the 3.4% growth seen in April 2024.

Auto-fuel demand helped keep the overall drop in petroleum consumption relatively mild. However, the weaker-than-expected start to the fiscal year has prompted analysts to revise their quarterly projections. The CMIE now expects total petroleum consumption to grow by just 1.4% in the April–June quarter, down from its earlier estimate of 1.6%.

The downward revision is driven mainly by the revised outlook for industrial fuels, which are now projected to contract by 4.5% in Q1—a sharp turnaround from earlier forecasts of growth. Meanwhile, auto-fuel consumption is expected to grow by 4.8% slightly better than previous estimates.

An early onset of the monsoon may further dampen demand in coming weeks, particularly in the construction sector, which relies heavily on bitumen. A slowdown in thermal power generation, which uses fuels like furnace oil and petroleum coke, could also weigh on fuel demand going forward.

An early onset of the monsoon may further dampen demand in coming weeks, particularly in the construction sector, which relies heavily on bitumen. A slowdown in thermal power generation, which uses fuels like furnace oil and petroleum coke, could also weigh on fuel demand going forward.