India’s GDP Grows 7.8% in Q4, Full-Year Growth at 7.7%

India’s economy expanded 7.7% in FY2025–26 compared with 7.1% in FY2024–25, according to provisional estimates released by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).

Growth in the January–March quarter of FY26 stood at 7.8%, compared with a revised 8% in the October–December quarter. The government also revised earlier quarterly estimates for FY26 under the updated GDP series.

The data is based on a revised national accounts framework with 2022–23 as the new base year. The update includes changes to the inflation basket and revised data sources, aimed at better capturing changes in consumption patterns and economic activity.

The latest GDP data comes after revisions to earlier quarterly figures, reflecting updates in the national accounts series and broader data adjustments across FY26.

Quarterly Performance and Revised Estimates

Gross value added (GVA), which measures sector-wise economic activity, rose 7.9% in real terms in Q4 FY26. Nominal GDP for the quarter increased 9.1%.

For the full year, nominal GDP rose to ₹346.36 lakh crore in FY26 from ₹318.07 lakh crore in FY25, while real GDP increased to ₹323.12 lakh crore from ₹299.89 lakh crore in the same period.

Earlier quarterly estimates for FY26 were also revised marginally under the updated series, including changes to April–June and July–September figures.

RBI outlook and revised projections

The latest GDP data comes hours after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) revised its growth forecast for FY27 downward to 6.6% from 6.9%, citing global economic uncertainty and external risks in its monetary policy statement.

As per the central bank’s projections, growth for FY27 is expected at 6.6% in April–June 2026, 6.3% in July–September 2026, 6.5% in October–December 2026, and 6.8% in January–March 2027. Earlier, the RBI had estimated higher growth for each quarter at 6.8%, 6.7%, 7%, and 7.2% respectively.