FCNR(B) deposit mobilisation may have already crossed the $26 billion raised under the 2013 scheme in just 45 days, according to SBI Research.
SBI Research raised its FCNR(B) inflow estimate to $65-70 billion, with total RBI-linked inflows including OFCBs and ECBs projected at $80-85 billion.
Strong foreign currency inflows could push India’s balance of payments to a surplus of over $50 billion in FY27, reversing an earlier projected deficit of $65-70 billion.
India's FCNR(B) Deposit Rush Gathers Pace; SBI Sees Up To $70 Bn By Scheme Close
SBI Research expects $10 billion from deposit renewals alone and sees the balance of payments swinging to a surplus of over $50 billion in FY27
India's FCNR(B) Deposit Rush Gathers Pace; SBI Sees Up To $70 Billion By Scheme Close
Summary
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India's Foreign Currency Non-Resident (Bank), or FCNR(B), deposit mobilisation may have already surpassed the entire amount raised during the 2013 special deposit scheme in just 45 days, with SBI Research projecting deposits could eventually reach $65-70 billion under the current Reserve Bank of India measures.
The RBI had reported total inflows of around $20.7 billion up to July 17, including $17.4 billion through FCNR(B) deposits. Based on subsequent trends, SBI Research estimates that FCNR(B) mobilisation has already crossed the $26 billion raised under the 2013 scheme, which had taken nearly three months.
The research house has consequently raised its projection for FCNR(B) deposits to $65-70 billion by the time the scheme closes, substantially higher than its earlier estimate of $40-45 billion.
Including Overseas Foreign Currency Borrowings (OFCBs) and External Commercial Borrowings (ECBs), SBI Research expects total inflows under the RBI measures to reach $80-85 billion.
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PSBs, Deposit Renewals Could Drive Inflows
Public sector banks are expected to account for a significant portion of the mobilisation. SBI Research said a large share of FCNR(B) deposits maturing in August and September could be renewed under the new scheme due to higher interest rates.
The report estimated that renewals alone could bring in around $10 billion.
Despite the strong mobilisation, the increase in India's foreign currency assets (FCA) has so far been relatively modest. While FCNR(B) inflows stood at $17.4 billion until July 17, FCA had increased by only $7.6 billion since June 8, according to the report.
SBI Research expects FCA growth to accelerate to $17-20 billion by the end of July.
SBI Flags Rupee Weakness, RBI Intervention
The report, however, flagged the continued weakness in the rupee and argued that the RBI's intervention in the foreign exchange market has not been forceful enough.
SBI Research said the central bank has been intervening at an average of around $14 million a day, which it described as insufficient given India's foreign exchange reserves of about $676 billion. It pointed out that average intervention during 1997-98 was around $55 million a day.
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The surge in foreign currency inflows could significantly alter India's external sector outlook.
SBI Research expects India's balance of payments to record a surplus of more than $50 billion in FY27, compared with its earlier projection of a $65-70 billion deficit before the measures were introduced.
Meanwhile, India's current account deficit is projected at 1.0-1.2% of GDP.