India's 2025-26 Sugar Output Estimate Cut 4.4% to 28.3 Mn Tonne on Weather Woes: AISTA

India's sugar output for the 2025-26 season has been revised down 4.4 per cent to 28.3 million tonnes from an earlier first estimate of 29.6 million tonnes, trade body AISTA said on Friday, citing lower yields in key producing states due to adverse weather.

Gross sugar production is expected at 31.5 million tonnes, with 3.2 million tonnes likely to be diverted for ethanol production, the All India Sugar Trade Association said in a statement.

Output in the ongoing October-September season is still seen higher than the 26.2 million tonnes produced in 2024-25.

The crop committee of AISTA said the season presented "extraordinary climatic challenges" across Maharashtra and neighbouring Karnataka, where continuous showers and extended cloudy weather disrupted sugarcane growth during crucial vegetative and maturation stages.

Excessive rainfall in October caused severe disruption in Maharashtra's Marathwada region, leading to waterlogging, restricted field operations and crop stress, AISTA said. Early flowering also hit ratoon crops, resulting in productivity losses in several areas.

Maharashtra, the country's top sugar-producing state, saw its output estimate cut to 9.97 million tonnes from 10.81 million tonnes, though that remains above the 8.1 million tonnes produced in 2024-25.

In Uttar Pradesh, India's second-largest producer, the estimate was trimmed to 9.1 million tonnes from 9.41 million tonnes, slightly below the 9.3 million tonnes recorded last season. Strong demand for sugarcane from jaggery units reduced cane supply to mills, AISTA said.

Karnataka's output projection was lowered to 4.8 million tonnes from 4.91 million tonnes, but remained above the 4.3 million tonnes achieved in 2024-25.

While sugar recovery in Uttar Pradesh improved by about half a percentage point, yields remained a concern, AISTA added.

Industry body ISMA has also revised down its 2025-26 sugar output forecast, though it too sees production exceeding last season's level.