India Exim Bank Projects Merchandise Exports to Amount to $108.1 Billion in Q2 of FY26

Export-Import Bank of India (India Exim Bank) forecasts total merchandise exports to amount to USD 108.1 billion, a growth of 4.5 per cent, while non-oil exports are forecast to amount USD 92.1 billion, with a growth of 5.2 per cent, during July-September of FY26.

Non-oil and non-gems and jewellery exports are forecast to amount USD 82.7 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 2.3 per cent, during the second quarter, India Exim Bank said in a statement.

Growth in India's exports could be as a result of base effect, along with expected continued buoyancy in manufacturing activity supported by increased capacity utilisation and congenial financial conditions, favourable prospects of current trade negotiations with several countries, and an expansionary monetary policy in India, it said.

The outlook is, however, subject to risks of higher tariffs and global trade policy uncertainty affecting global demand, rising geo-economic fragmentation and persisting geo-political tensions, it said.

Forecast of growth in India's total merchandise exports, non-oil exports, non-gems and jewellery exports are released by Exim Bank on a quarterly basis, during the first fortnight of the months of May, August, November, and February for the corresponding quarters, based on its Export Leading Index (ELI) model, it said.

The next growth forecast for India's exports for the third quarter of FY26 (October-December 2025) would be released during the first fortnight of November 2025, it added.