GTRI Flags Risks As Rubio Urges Reliance To Process More Venezuelan Crude

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s push for Indian refiners, particularly Reliance Industries, to process more Venezuelan crude has raised questions over the commercial and strategic risks of expanding India’s energy ties with Venezuela.

The Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI), in a report on October 21, said India must separately assess additional crude purchases, investments in Venezuela’s oil infrastructure and any reduction in Russian oil imports before committing to Washington’s proposal.

The concerns come a day after Rubio urged India to process more Venezuelan oil during his Mumbai visit. On Wednesday, he toured Reliance’s Jamnagar complex in Gujarat.

Reliance’s Dominance Explains US Interest

India imported Venezuelan crude worth $3.59 billion between April and August 2026, according to the GTRI report. Reliance accounted for 74.3% of these purchases, making it a key player in any expansion of Venezuelan oil supplies to India.

The company’s Jamnagar refineries can process a wide range of crude grades, including heavy blends. The complex can handle about 1.4 million barrels per day and is a major supplier of refined fuels to global markets, as per PTI.

However, GTRI cautioned that a lower purchase price does not automatically translate into better returns. India paid an average of $612 per tonne for Venezuelan crude during April–August, compared with $821 per tonne for higher-quality Saudi Arabian crude. The savings must be weighed against additional handling and refining costs.

Venezuela’s Oil Infra Poses Investment Risks

GTRI said Venezuela’s ageing and damaged oil infrastructure could make fresh investments significantly more difficult than simply buying available crude.

The country produces around 1.1–1.2 million barrels per day, while restoring output to its historical peak of more than 3 million barrels per day could take 7–10 years and require $75 billion to over $100 billion, the report said.

The think tank also flagged India’s previous experience with US sanctions on Venezuela. Restrictions disrupted ONGC Videsh’s investments, while hundreds of millions of dollars in Indian dividend earnings were stranded in Venezuelan accounts.

GTRI said New Delhi must establish whether Washington expects Indian companies to purchase crude or help finance the rebuilding of Venezuela’s oil industry.

Russian Oil And US Investment

India’s Russian crude purchases fell from $7.3 billion in July to $5.4 billion in August, according to GTRI. Russia’s share of India’s crude imports declined from 51% to 45% over the same period.

The report questioned the consistency of Washington’s pressure on India to reduce Russian oil purchases, citing a US agreement with Russia on diesel supplies.

Meanwhile, Reliance’s planned 168,000-barrel-a-day refinery in Brownsville, Texas, adds another dimension to the relationship. The project is designed to process US light shale crude, with Reliance agreeing to purchase its refined products.

GTRI said India should seek clarity on supply reliability, investment obligations, pricing and commercial returns before accepting further commitments. For New Delhi, the challenge is to strengthen ties with Washington without compromising its flexibility in choosing energy suppliers, it added.