Fitch Affirms India's Sovereign Rating; Says Domestic Economy Strong Despite Headwinds

Fitch Ratings on Tuesday affirmed India's sovereign rating at 'BBB-' with a stable outlook and said the domestic economy remains strong, despite headwinds from the energy shock arising from the West Asia crisis.

Fitch said it does not expect a durable risk to India's growth prospects arising from uncertainty related to the US-Iran conflict.

"India's economy has been resilient to shocks in recent years, a trend we expect to continue," Fitch said, while assigning the lowest investment grade rating of 'BBB-'.

India's rating reflects its robust growth outlook and solid external finance fundamentals, Fitch said, and estimated GDP growth of 6.4% in the current fiscal year ending March 2027 (FY27).

A strengthening record of delivering macroeconomic stability and improving policy credibility should underpin continued robust growth and enhance economic resilience, despite near-term macroeconomic headwinds from the energy shock, Fitch said.

"High growth should also support a sustained improvement in structural credit metrics and increase the likelihood that government debt will trend down," Fitch added.

In the FY27 Budget, the government estimated the debt-to-GDP ratio at 55.6% of GDP, lower than 56.1% of GDP in FY26.

The government has set a target to bring down its debt-to-GDP ratio to 50% by March 2031.