Swiggy shareholders have approved a proposal to cap foreign shareholding at 49.5%.
Jefferies estimates the move could lead to over $400 million in passive outflows from MSCI and FTSE indices.
The shift could help Swiggy move Instamart to an inventory-led model, potentially improving margins.
Swiggy’s India-Owned Shift Could Trigger $400 Mn Passive Outflows, Jefferies Warns
Swiggy’s move to cap foreign ownership at 49.5% could pave the way for an inventory-led Instamart model, but may also trigger index exclusions and passive outflows
Summary
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Swiggy is moving closer to becoming an Indian-owned and controlled company (IOCC), but the transition could come with a significant impact on its stock’s index inclusion. International brokerage Jefferies estimates that the company could face passive outflows of more than $400 million if it is subsequently removed from MSCI and FTSE indices, according to a report by The Economic Times (ET).
Swiggy shareholders have approved a proposal to cap foreign shareholding in the company at 49.5%. The company can now approach the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) for approval of the foreign ownership ceiling, a move that would support its plans to operate quick-commerce platform Instamart under an inventory-led model.
Why Swiggy Could Face Index Outflows
As of early August, domestic investors held 50.5% of Swiggy, while foreign ownership stood at 49.5%, effectively at the proposed limit, ET reported.
Jefferies said stocks with foreign ownership caps enter a red-flag category when foreign portfolio investor (FPI) holdings are within three percentage points of the maximum permitted limit. For Swiggy, that threshold would be 46.5%, according to the brokerage’s analysis cited by ET.
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If the limit is breached, foreign investors would have to sell their excess holdings to domestic investors within five trading days from trade settlement, according to the brokerage.
Once the resulting change in foreign ownership is reflected in depository data, Swiggy could be removed from the relevant benchmarks within two to three business days, Jefferies said.
Instamart Model Could Boost Margins
The ownership change is also important for Swiggy’s quick-commerce business. Jefferies said the move supports management’s plan to shift Instamart to a 1P, or inventory-led, model, which could provide around 80 basis points of margin upside.
Swiggy still needs the necessary regulatory approval and implementation steps before making the shift. The process will involve notifying depositories and could take around two to three weeks, according to Jefferies.