Reliance Enters Deep Oversold Zone after Retail Slowdown, $29 Bn Value Erosion

Shares of Reliance Industries have slipped into their most oversold territory in at least five years, weighed down by a slowdown in its retail business and growing investor concerns over possible US action linked to the company’s purchase of Russian crude oil.

The stock’s 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI)—a commonly used indicator to track buying and selling momentum—fell to 24.4 on January 20, placing it well below the level that traders typically view as oversold, Bloomberg report. According to the report the RSI has not been this low in the past five years.

The decline follows an 11% fall in Reliance shares so far in 2026, putting the stock on track for its worst start to a year since 2011. The sell-off has wiped out nearly $29 billion in market value this year, the report further added.

After the company announced its Q3 results for the financial year 2025-26 (FY26), several brokerages trimmed their earnings estimates for Reliance by 1–3%, largely due to weaker performance in the retail segment, according to Bloomberg.

Analysts reportedly attributed the retail slowdown to factors such as aggressive expansion in quick commerce, continued weakness in the fashion and lifestyle business, and the impact of the new labour code.

Despite the recent correction, most brokerages remain positive on the stock over the medium term. Of the 28 brokerages tracking Reliance, the median price target stands at ₹1,717, suggesting a potential 23% upside from current levels. At least 11 analysts have price targets of ₹1,750 or higher, while seven brokerages see the stock rising to ₹1,800 or more, the report added.

Analysts reportedly cautioned that growth may remain muted in the near term, with key triggers expected to be the listing of Jio Platforms, a possible tariff hike, the ramp-up of Reliance’s new energy business, and a recovery in retail growth.

Reliance is expected to list its digital and telecom arm, Jio, in the first half of 2026. The value of Jio is estimated to be between $133 billion and $182 billion, with the IPO size likely to exceed $4 billion, according to several reports.

While the listing is awaiting regulatory clarity from SEBI, a separate report by The Economic Times said that lead bankers for the IPO have already been shortlisted. According to the report, the offering is expected to be led by US investment banking giants Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs.