Meta is developing a standalone prediction market app called Arena to rival Polymarket and Kalshi.
The app will initially use a points-based system, though real-money betting has not been ruled out for later.
Meta's move comes as the prediction market sector faces regulatory scrutiny in the US and a likely ban in India.
After Naming Kunal Shah WhatsApp CEO, Zuckerberg Bets on Prediction Markets
Prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi allow users to place bets on the outcomes of events ranging from sporting contests like Super Bowl to political developments like State of the Union address. Both platforms have seen rapid user growth in recent years
Mark Zuckerberg Facebook_#@Mark Zuckerberg
Summary
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Meta Chief Executive Mark Zuckerberg has directed a small internal team to develop a standalone prediction market app similar to Polymarket and Kalshi, the New York Times reported, citing company employees. The app is internally referred to as "Arena" and would operate independently from Meta's existing social networking platforms, which include Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp and Messenger.
Prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi allow users to place bets on the outcomes of events ranging from sporting contests like Super Bowl to political developments like State of the Union address. Both platforms have seen rapid user growth in recent years, the report added.
This development comes days after Zuckerberg appointed Cred founder Kunal Shah as the global CEO of WhatsApp following a $900 million investment in the fintech platform.
How Arena Would Work
Meta plans to grow the app by directing users from its existing platforms toward it. Users would initially not wager real money. Instead, the app would likely use a video game-style points system, though the company has not ruled out real-money betting at a later stage, as per NYT.
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The effort has been characterised by insiders as experimental but a top priority. It is part of a broader push by Zuckerberg to build new standalone apps based on emerging online behaviour. Meta's platforms collectively attract more than 3.56 billion daily visitors.
Arena is one of several apps Meta is currently testing. Another, called Meta Photos, is a standalone app that would use artificial intelligence to generate new types of media, employees told the publication.
A Crowded and Scrutinised Space
The prediction market sector has drawn interest beyond technology companies. Traditional gambling operators such as FanDuel and DraftKings have moved into the space, and Trump Media and Technology Group has announced plans to launch its own prediction market platform.
The sector has also attracted regulatory scrutiny. In April, federal prosecutors in New York charged a member of the US Special Forces with using confidential military information to place bets on Polymarket linked to a top-secret plan to capture Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. Prosecutors said he made more than $400,000 from the trades.
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Separately, reports have pointed to concerns that well-timed trades ahead of major policy announcements by US President Donald Trump may have generated significant gains for unknown traders. Several US states have sued prediction market operators over alleged violations of gambling laws, while the current federal administration has in turn sued those states.
In India, the government is expected to formally block both Kalshi and Polymarket, according to a previous report by The Print.
Meta's potential move into the space has drawn criticism. US Senator Richard Blumenthal wrote on X, "Meta copied slot machines to addict kids to Instagram. Now Zuckerberg is turning his company into a prediction market." Meta has faced legal challenges over the impact of its platforms on children, with multiple ongoing lawsuits across US states alleging that its apps were designed in ways harmful to minors.