Weak La Niña to Impact Global Weather Till March 2026, May Trigger Colder Winter in India – Here’s Why

There is a 55% chance that there could be a weak La Niña from this month until February 2026, according to the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO).

A Times of India report published in September 2025 said meteorologists in India also warned that La Niña conditions could return later this year which would impact global weather patterns and make India’s winters cooler.

What is La Niña?

According to the US NOAA, La Niña, which translates to "Little Girl" in Spanish, is a cold-phase event of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). It increases the upwelling of cold, nutrient-rich water off the west coast of the Americas, strengthens trade winds, and pushes warm water towards Asia.

Though the La Niña pattern involves the temporary cooling of temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, many regions are still expected to be warmer than normal—increasing the chance of floods and droughts, which can impact crops, Reuters reported citing WMO.

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an ocean-atmosphere phenomenon in the equatorial Pacific that affects global weather. It has three phases—warm (El Niño), cool (La Niña), and neutral (ENSO)—which typically alternate every 2 to 7 years.

“For periods during January–March and February–April 2026, there is a 65% and 75% likelihood for the temperatures to return to ENSO-neutral conditions,” WMO added. However, the models eliminated the development of El Niño in the near future.

According to The Indian Express, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), the ENSO counterpart in the Indian Ocean, is also expected to return to the neutral phase, IMD said. Currently, global models also indicate that sea surface temperatures will slowly transition to ENSO-neutral after March 2026.

Although the intensity of La Niña's effects may be moderated by the shift to neutral conditions, India may still see colder winters and more frequent cold waves in the north.

How La Niña affects India’s winter temperatures?

A 2024 study by the Indian Institute of Science Education and Research (IISER), Mohali (Punjab), and National Institute for Space Research, Brazil, stated that La Niña conditions seemed to play a crucial role in triggering intense cold waves over north India.

“During La Niña, the prominent low level cyclonic anomaly helps in advecting cold air from the higher latitudes into the country. The frequency as well as the duration of cold wave events are also found to be higher in La Niña years compared to El Nino and neutral years,” the study concluded.