Sugar Industry Body Projects 309.5 Lakh Tonnes Output for 2025–26 — Here’s Why It’s Concerning

India’s sugar output for the 2025-26 season is projected at 309.5 lakh tonnes, indicating an improved sugarcane yield and sugar recovery marked by favourable rainfall and adequate reservoir levels and a slight increase in cane acreage, according to the first advance estimates of sugar production in 2025-26 released by the India Sugar Mills Association (ISMA).

The post-monsoon pan-India satellite imagery captured in October 2025 revealed that the total sugarcane area across the country stands at around 57.35 lakh hectares, marginally higher than 57.11 lakh hectares in 2024-25. The findings were reviewed during the ISMA Executive Committee meeting held on November 4 which examined imagery data, field reports on expected yield, sugar recovery, cane drawl percentage, the impact of rainfall in the previous and current seasons, reservoir water availability, anticipated post-monsoon rainfall for 2025, and other relevant factors.

According to the ISMA report, Maharashtra leads the output surge with production up 39% to 130 lakh tonnes, aided by good rainfall and higher cane area. Meanwhile, Uttar Pradesh may see a slight increase to 103.2 lakh tonnes despite reduced acreage, Karnataka's output is expected to increase 16% to 63.5 lakh tonnes.

Ethanol Sourcing in Trouble

The sugar sector has raised concerns over reduction of ethanol sourcing from the sugar sector during the 2025-2026 ethanol supply year.

ISMA told The Hindu that only 289 crore litres of ethanol have been allocated from sugar-based feedstocks, accounting for just 28% of the total requirement. The industry has invested close to ₹40,000 crore and has the capacity to supply 650 crore litre of ethanol a year. It supplied nearly 330 crore litre in the last ethanol supply year, it said.

Between October 1, 2025, and September 30, 2026, the industry anticipates producing nearly 335 lakh tonnes of sugar. Only 284 lakh tonnes of this will be consumed domestically.  While 34 lakh tonnes of sugar will be diverted for ethanol, which will result in surplus sugar supplies.