Stock Market Outlook: 3 Key Triggers to Watch Out for on D-Street Next Week

The Indian stock market recorded its longest run of weekly gains in 2025, as robust performance by index heavyweights coupled with FII (foreign institutional investor) inflow renewed the overall sentiment on D-street. Benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty, witnessed robust momentum with large-caps leading the gains. Reliance’s strong Q4 performance and its entry into the Rs 10 lakh crore net worth club further boosted overall market optimism.

While the BSE Sensex crossed the 80,500 mark, the NSE Nifty hovered just below the psychological 24,400 level. Here are 3 key triggers to watch out on D-street next week-

1. FII Flow

Foreign investors have made a strong comeback on D-street after selling Indian equities in the first 3 months of 2025. "Cumulatively FIIs sold equity for Rs 1,29,680 crores during this 3-month period. In April FIIs turned buyers having bought equity for Rs 3,243 crores. During the last 12 trading days FIIs have been sustained buyers in the cash market having bought equities for Rs 40,145 crores cumulatively. This is a major pivot in FII strategy," said VK Vijayakumar, chief investment strategist, Geojit Investments.

Analysts attribute this trend reversal to two key factors. First, Trump’s announcement of a 90-day pause on tariffs led to a recovery in global stock markets, where India performed better than most. Second, a sharp decline in the US Dollar Index further supported the momentum. However, banners of caution are still high due to the ongoing quarterly results.

"FII inflows can remain stable, but will be constrained by the modest earnings growth of around 5%  in FY25," said Vijayakumar.

2. Key Events to Watch

The coming week is packed with some major events that can have a strong impact on both the global and Indian equity markets. On the macroeconomic front, investors will be eyeing the HSBC Composite PMI and HSBC Services PMI Final data. Globally, all eyes will be on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision scheduled for May 7.

Developments regarding tariff and geopolitical tensions with Pakistan will still remain on the radar, analysts pointed out.

3. Technical Outlook

The Nifty continued its upward rally for the third straight week which has been almost a vertical rise, the possibility of some consolidation can not be ruled out before the next major directional move, said Ajit Mishra, SVP-research, Religare Broking.

"Nifty hovered between a range of 24,000 to 24,600 while it will be crucial to hold the 23,800 level downside to maintain its bullish tone; a breach could lead to extended profit-taking, with the next major support near 23,400—where key moving averages such as 20-day, 100-day, and 200-day EMAs still supporting upside," he added.

However, a clear breakout above 24,400 on the closing basis could reignite bullish momentum, eventually driving the index towards the 24,800 level, according to analysts.