Gold May See Volatile Moves as Traders Await US Fed FOMC, Tariff Developments: Analysts

Gold prices may see heightened volatility in the coming week as investors track a crucial July 9 tariff deadline, policy signals from major central banks, including the US Federal Reserve, and key global macroeconomic data, analysts said.

"These factors could influence the near-term trajectory of gold prices," analysts said, adding that traders are expected to remain cautious ahead of any major policy cues or geopolitical developments.

The 90-day suspension of Trump tariffs on imports from several countries, including India, ends on July 9, reviving the risk of a 26 per cent additional duty on Indian goods entering the US.

"Going ahead, the focus will be on the interest rate cuts by key central banks, especially US Fed Reserve, the outcome of trade negotiation between US and its trading partners, incoming global economic data, which could impact the near-term gold prices," Pranav Mer, Vice President, EBG, Commodity & Currency Research at JM Financial Services Ltd, said.

Investors will also closely monitor the release of the US Fed's FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting minutes.

Last week, the precious metal futures for August delivery rose Rs 1,563, or 1.61 per cent, on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX).

N S Ramaswamy, Head of Commodities Desk and CRM at Ventura, said gold prices in the international market, currently at USD 3,345 per ounce, could remain under selling pressure due to the solid US macroeconomic data that dented hopes of a July interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve.

Despite some corrective rallies, Ramaswamy stated that "the short-term outlook favours consolidation and corrective upward movements, followed by a likely continuation of the broader downward trend".

Ramaswamy, however, said fiscal deficit worries in the US and impending Trump tariffs decision could trigger fresh volatility and lift demand for the yellow metal.

Central banks added a net 20 tonnes of gold to global gold reserves in May, he said.

Prathamesh Mallya, DVP, Research, Non-Agri Commodities and Currencies at Angel One, said gold prices continue to be supported by a weakening US dollar and ongoing geopolitical concerns.

"Dollar weakness has been a key part of gold prices rising in 2024 as well as in 2025. This trend will continue for the rest of the year," Mallya said.

Meanwhile, JM Financial's Pranav Mer also pointed to persistent central bank purchases, and increased retail and institutional investments via ETFs as factors bolstering the long-term bullish case for gold prices.

Gold prices have outperformed all the asset classes in the first half of 2025 with gains of nearly 25 per cent, Mer said.