Sugar production in India is expected to face a significant decline in the 2025 season, with forecasts predicting a drop to below 27 million metric tons (MMT), down from 31.8 MMT in the previous year, reported ANI.
This marks a notable 12% decrease in output, primarily due to increased diversion of sugarcane for ethanol production and a reduction in cane availability across key producing states.
Additionally, the recent revision in ethanol prices has not lived up to expectations. While the Government of India increased prices for the Chandigarh route by 3%, the anticipated hikes for the Bihar and Direct routes were not implemented, leading to some disappointment within the sector.
Despite these setbacks, sugar prices remain strong, with prices in Uttar Pradesh exceeding Rs 40,000 per ton and similar increases in Maharashtra, where prices are hovering around Rs 37,000 per ton.
Climate Change, Ethanol Production Continue to Impact
As of January 31, sugar production in India had already fallen to 16.5 million metric tons (MMT) from 18.8 MMT during the same period last season, marking a 12% reduction. This drop is attributed to lower cane availability, particularly in Maharashtra and an increasing diversion of sugarcane towards ethanol production.
When the 2024-2025 season (October-September) began, Maharashtra was projected to produce about 102 lakh tonnes (lt) of sugar, down from 110.20 lt in the 2023-24 season. According to Indian Express, famers have blamed climate change for early flowering, which shortened the crop’s life cycle. This early flowering ended the vegetative growth period prematurely, limiting accumulation of sucrose (sugar) in the stalks, impacting the overall yield.
In a significant push toward energy self-sufficiency, India is gearing up to enhance its ethanol production to achieve a 20% blending rate in petrol by the Ethanol Supply Year (ESY) 2025. Achieving this sustainable goal will require an annual production of approximately 990 crore litres of ethanol, according to ET. To meet these ambitious targets, India must optimise the use of both grain and sugarcane feedstocks, ET added.
