In the next five years, there is an 80% possibility that global temperatures will surpass annual records, increasing the risk of extreme droughts, forest fires and floods, revealed a report published by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) on May 28.
According to The Guardian, the data also indicated a small possibility that before 2030, the world could experience a year that is 2 degrees Celsius hotter than the preindustrial era, a scenario scientists described as “shocking”.
The update synthesises short-term weather observations and long-term climate projections, revealing a 70% chance that five-year average warming for 2025-2029 will exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels.
While this suggests the Paris Agreement’s target is at risk, the treaty’s actual goal is based on a 20-year average, not just a five-year period.
Highlighting how rapidly the world is warming, even 2C is now appearing as a statistical possibility in the latest update, which is compiled by 220 ensemble members from models contributed by 15 different institutes, including the UK’s Met Office, Barcelona Supercomputing Centre, the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, and Deutscher Wetterdienst, as reported by The Guardian.
While the possibility of hitting 2 degrees Celsius before 2030 is miniscule (about 1%) and would require a convergence of multiple warming factors, such as a strong El Niño and positive Arctic Oscillation, it was earlier considered impossible in a five-year timeframe.
“I think we are headed for major societal disruption within the next five years,” Gretta Pecl, at the University of Tasmania told The Guardian. “[Authorities] will be overwhelmed by extreme event after extreme event, food production will be disrupted. I could not feel greater despair over the future,” Pecl added.
Scientists Predict Bleak Future
According to The Guardian, the world’s leading climate scientists expect global temperatures to rise at least 2.5C (4.5F) above preindustrial levels this century, going beyond the internationally agreed targets and causing catastrophic consequences.
The report states that about 80% of the respondents, from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), predict at least 2.5 degrees Celsius of global heating, while almost half anticipate at least 3 degrees Celsius (5.4F). Only 6% thought the internationally agreed 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7F) limit will be met.
