India is experiencing unusually warm weather and less rainfall in February, putting a strain on the country’s wheat crop production and increasing the likelihood of the government slashing the import duty on wheat.
India’s northwest region has received rainfall that is almost 80% below normal since the beginning of the year, according to Bloomberg. Additionally, January was the third warmest in India since 1901, reported TOI.
Donald Keeney, a senior meteorologist at Maxar Technologies Inc., told Bloomberg, “The forecast shows continued warmer and drier conditions for at least the next month, which will continue to reduce overall wheat yields in the region.” She further added, “It’s certainly hurting the wheat crop.”
Climate Change Impact
A report from the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) Department of Economic and Policy Research, published in May 2023, stated that climate change, driven by increasing temperatures and changing monsoon patterns, will significantly impact the economy, according to CNBC TV18.
According to the same report, if global warming raises the temperature by 2 degree Celsius as against 1.5 degree Celsius, India, along with countries such as Brazil and Mexico, will face high risk of reduction in economic growth.
A 2022 World Bank report forecast that climate change manifested through rising temperature and changing patterns of monsoon rainfall in India could cost the economy 2.8% of its GDP and depress the living standards of nearly half of its population by 2050. It also highlighted the risk of substantial job losses due to excessive heat waves, predicting that India could account for 34 million of the projected 80 million global job losses from heat stress associated productivity decline by 2030.
Furthermore, up to 4.5% of India’s GDP could be at risk by 2030 due to lost labour hours from extreme heat and humidity conditions.
The agriculture sector, which contributes around 16% to the country's GDP, is one of the most vulnerable to heat waves, reported CNBC TV18. Rising temperatures affect crop productivity, labour productivity and crop quality, leading to lower yields. This decline in agricultural output reduces farmers' incomes, which negatively impacts the overall economy.
It is imperative that the government takes measures to help farmers adapt adequately to changing climate and water shortages.
