India’s Steel Demand to Spike Coking Coal Imports 42% by 2030, Amid Climate Concerns

India’s coking coal imports are projected to surge nearly 42% to 115 million tonnes (MT) by the end of the decade as the nation targets 300 MT of steel production capacity by 2030, according to the latest report by EY Parthenon in association with the Indian Steel Association (ISA).

The report titled, India’s Coking Coal Strategy: Building Resilience through Innovation, Sustainability and Policy, underscored that the rising steel demand from infrastructure, construction and automotive sectors will fuel coking coal requirements accounting for 95% of the total demand.

Presently, the imports stand at 81 million tonnes in FY25, while demand for coking coal is expected to climb 55% to 135 million tonnes by FY30 from 87 million tonnes in FY25.  

Commenting on the value of India’s reliance on the imported coking coal, Vinayak Vipul, Partner, Business Consulting, EY Parthenon, stated in a news release, “India’s steel ambitions cannot be realised without addressing its heavy reliance on imported coking coal. While domestic production is projected to double by 2030, imports will still play a defining role in meeting demand. This dependence makes the sector vulnerable to price volatility and supply chain shocks. The way ahead is clear—India must accelerate beneficiation to unlock the true value of its reserves, diversify sourcing to reduce risk, and invest in technologies that pave the way toward low-carbon steel. Building a transparent pricing index and a national reserve will be equally critical to balance growth with resilience and sustainability.”

Naveen Jindal, President Indian Steel Association, added, “India’s steel industry is entering a transformative era, driven by rising domestic demand and global competition. Coking coal remains the backbone of steelmaking, and securing a reliable, high-quality supply is a strategic necessity for national growth. With stronger resource security, technological innovation and clear policy support, India can build a stronger and globally competitive steel sector.”

India’s Heavy Coal Dependence

The report further stated that, India, the world’s second-largest steel producer, heavily depends on coking coal and is working towards self-sustainability and reliance. The blast furnace-basic oxygen furnace (BF-BOF) route, accounts for approximately 65% of installed capacity and 58% of actual production.

To enhance self-reliance, the government’s Atmanirbhar Coal Mission under Mission Coking Coal seeks to scale domestic raw output to 140 MT by FY30—105 MT from Coal India and 35 MT from private allocations—while enhancing the washed coal capacity to 15 MT. Policy reforms, including 100% FDI in mining, revenue-sharing auctions, and 20–30% capital subsidies for washeries, aim to reduce import dependence from ~90% today to below 80% by 2030, accelerate beneficiation, and enhance supply security.

With rising coal consumption in steel production, the industry has also become a significant contributor to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, both globally (7%-8%) and 12% within India. This reality underscores the urgent need for cleaner technologies and comprehensive decarbonisation efforts across the sector.

Towards Sustainable Steelmaking

According to 2024 Green Steel Production Pathways report by EY, India must accelerate adoption of green hydrogen injection in blast furnaces, energy‐efficiency upgrades, and carbon capture in addition to import strategies.

 Also, IEEFA warns that “builds now, decarbonise later” approach risks the development of steel capacity using low-emissions technologies. Opting for such low-emissions options today could help India save money in the future, avoid stranded investments and strengthen its green steel ambitions.