Recurring heatwaves and erratic monsoon between 2019 and 2024 have impacted agricultural yields and contributed to high food prices
India's retail inflation surged to a 14-month high of 6.2 per cent in October 2024, primarily driven by escalating food prices. Food inflation alone reached a staggering 10.87 per cent during the month, consistently remaining above 8 per cent for most of the year, except for a brief dip below 6 per cent in July and August.
This relentless rise in food prices has become the major reason for rising inflation in India. Economists have even suggested reducing food weightage in the consumer price index (CPI) basket and the government is, reportedly, considering the suggestion.
In FY24, the country's headline inflation was volatile, fluctuating between 4.3 per cent and 7.4 per cent. Staples such as tomatoes, potatoes, milk, chicken, eggs, and fish saw sharp price increases.
High food prices are further expected to keep overall inflation elevated during the October-December quarter as well. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has raised its inflation forecast for this fiscal year to 4.8 per cent from earlier 4.5 per cent.
While the relationship between climate change and food security is complex, involving agricultural practices, land-use patterns, and the quality of available resources (water, soil), weather aberrations like drought, floods, unseasonal rains and extreme weather events such as heat wave, cold wave, frost, hailstorm and cyclone have been known to leave a significant impact on agricultural production.
Agricultural production in India is carried out in three cycles: Kharif (June-September), Rabi (October-January) and Zaid (February-May). The Kharif cycle roughly corresponds to the monsoon season, Rabi to winter and Zaid to a short dry summer season. Changes in seasonal patterns, such as the delayed onset of monsoon and uneven and erratic patterns of rainfall, therefore interfere with the food production process. Similarly, extended periods of heat wave and cold wave and warmer-than-usual winters are known to disrupt the sowing, growing and harvesting patterns.
A 2024 research paper by RBI Deputy Governor Michael Debabrata Patra and two others, has highlighted the role of extreme weather events in triggering multiple supply shocks in India. According to the researchers, food inflation in the country averaged 6.3 per cent during the 2020s, in stark contrast to 2.9 per cent during 2016-2020. “A key distinguishing factor in this sharp divergence has been the incidence of multiple overlapping supply shocks due to climate events in the more recent period that impacted the spatial and temporal distribution of monsoons, induced sharp increases in surface temperatures and caused unseasonal rainfall,” they add.
The paper further states that during the 2020s, spatial and temporal distribution of monsoon has been highly skewed, with multiple instances of delayed onsets, dry weather conditions in peak monsoon months and high unseasonal rainfall during harvest months. This is despite the fact that average precipitation over the country has by and large remained normal as a whole. According the paper, the combined effect of all this has had “a deleterious impact on production and yields of agricultural crops, especially during the kharif season.”
Warmer-than-usual winter months and heat waves during summer have made things worse, impacting agricultural yields. “On the back of El Nino conditions, surface temperatures were persistently higher than normal levels since the second half of 2023-24. These climate adversities have impacted yields of rabi season crops,” stated the paper.
As food gets costly, it is crucial to address issues related to access and affordability. For countries like India, with billions to feed, rising food prices could have far-reaching consequences. For instance, a recent Reuters report revealed how government-funded school meals have had to cut back on supplies for the mid-day meal scheme provided to an estimated 120 million children across public schools.
Dipa Sinha, an independent development economist and researcher who works with the 'Right For Food' campaign, an informal non-government network of organisations and individuals, was quoted as saying, "While the government provides free grain for these meals, that does not compensate for a cut-back in other nutritious ingredients like vegetables, pulses, milk and eggs due to inadequate budgets."
Another report highlighted how India’s city dwellers are cutting spending on everything from cookies to fast food as persistently high inflation squeezes middle-class budgets. According to the report, spending among the middle-class has been waning, and one of the avenues where this could be seen is how consumers are cutting back on dining out.
So, what constitutes a healthy diet? According to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), “healthy diets are achieved by consuming a diversity of foods that provide adequate nutrients and bioactive compounds important for health, a balanced intake of macronutrients, and a moderation of foods and beverages that increase the risk of diet-related non-communicable diseases (NCDs).”
Changes in eating habits due to lower spending capacity and costly food are not unheard of. According to government estimates, the share of food items in total monthly per capita consumption expenditure (MPCE) has declined from 2011-12 to 2022-23. In rural India, food expenditure dropped from 53% to 46%, and in urban India, it decreased from 43% to 39%. Additionally, per capita expenditure on cereals has also declined.