Germany’s Emissions Fell 3.4% in 2024, On Track for 2030 Climate Goals: Should the Fossil Fuel Heating Ban Be Lifted?

Germany’s Federal Environment Agency announced on March 14 that greenhouse gas emissions in Germany fell by around 3.4% year-on-year in 2024, putting the country back on track to meet its 2030 climate targets.

According to Reuters, the agency reported that carbon dioxide emissions fell to 649 million tons in 2024. This figure is lower than the preliminary figure of 656 million metric tons published by the Berlin-based Agora Energiewende think-tank in January and well below the 2024 legal target of 693.4 million.

Germany aims to cut its greenhouse gas emissions by 65% by 2030 compared to 1990, a step to becoming carbon-neutral by 2045, reported Reuters.

However, Germany risks missing its EU Effort Sharing Regulation (ESR) targets for 2021–2030, primarily due to lagging emissions reductions in the transport and building sectors. While a surge in renewable energy, now covering 54% of the country’s electricity consumption, helped drive the 2024 decline, cuts in transport and buildings remained modest at just 1.4% and 2.3% respectively, failing to meet legal targets.

Should Germany Reconsider the Fossil Fuel Heating Ban?

Germany’s Environment Agency warned the incoming government against repealing the fossil-fuel heating systems ban.

“I would strongly advise the next federal government to stick to the law,” the agency’s president Dirk Messner told reporters on Friday. Europe’s biggest economy aims to slash carbon emissions by two-thirds by the end of the decade. However, decarbonising the housing sector has been tough as nearly 80% of the nation’s buildings are heated with oil or gas.

The conservative alliance, set to lead the next government, has pledged to abolish the ban despite its generous subsidies, covering up to 70% of the costs of installing an environmentally-friendly heat pump. This campaign promise has already caused a surge in subsidy applications before potential changes take effect.