China’s Carbon Intensity Drops 3.4%: What's the Impact on China's 2060 Carbon Neutrality Goal?

China’s carbon intensity-a measurement of carbon emissions per unit of gross domestic product (GDP)- fell by 3.4%, according to Al Jazeera. This failure to meet the key carbon emissions target has raised concerns about China’s ability to achieve carbon neutrality, a crucial factor in global efforts to avert the worst effects of climate change.

“Another year of rapidly rising emissions in 2023 leaves China way off track against its target of cutting carbon intensity by 18% between 2021 and 2025,” Lauri Myllyvirta, lead analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) told South China Morning Post. “As a result, carbon dioxide emissions would now need to fall by 4 to 6% by 2025 to hit the goal,” Myllyvirta added.

President Xi Jinping has pledged to reach peak emissions before the end of the decade and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060 under China’s “dual targets”. The world’s top polluter presents a paradox, responsible for about 30% of global emissions while simultaneously being the world leader in renewable energy investment.

The country’s success or failure to meet its emissions targets will have major implications for the international community’s efforts to keep average temperatures from rising more than 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels, a benchmark set by the United Nations to avert “catastrophic” effects of climate change, reported Reuters.

Keeping the 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold over the long-term is in question especially since 2024 became the first calendar year in history where temperatures breached the limit.

Carbon Neutrality of 2060

The official targets of China include reaching peak carbon emissions by 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality by 2060. Beijing also plans to “strictly control” the use of coal during the 14th Five-Year Plan, which covers the period until the end of 2025.

With coal accounting for nearly 80% of China’s fossil fuel emissions, according to 2024 report by The Guardian, this position hinders the country’s goals to transition away from fossil fuels.

“China already plans to reduce its coal consumption after 2026 but this cut will definitely have to be pretty drastic and fast if China wants to achieve the 2060 carbon neutrality goal,” Wang Xiaojun, founder of People of Asia for Climate Solutions, a climate NGO based in Manila told The Guardian.