Only 40% Cereals to Feed People by 2034 as Biofuel Production to Gobble Up Supply

Only 40% of the world’s cereal production will be consumed directly by humans by 2034. Biofuels and other uses are projected to account for the remaining 27%, according to OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2025-2034 published by Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO).

Contrary to the latest statistics, last year’s forecast had estimated that biofuels and other industrial applications would account for just 23% of cereal use by 2033. Animal feed will account for the remaining 33% of cereal utilisation by 2034, reported Down to Earth.

The findings underscored the intensifying competition between food, feed and fuel sectors for key agricultural feedstocks, especially as global biofuel demand accelerates—driven primarily by emerging economies. Biofuel demand is now expected to grow at an average rate of 0.9% per year through 2034, up from the previous projection of 0.6%.

Global biofuel use is projected to grow, driven over the coming decade a significant share of new biofuel production will be accounted for by emerging economies. Brazil, Indonesia and India are leading the change as transport fuel demand is rising and d supportive policies for biofuel consumption and production are being implemented, stated the report.

The industry is expected to continue relying heavily on food-based feedstocks, revealed the report.

“While cellulosic feedstocks — such as crop residues, dedicated energy crops or woody biomass — offer promising alternatives that avoid competition with food sources, these advanced feedstocks are not expected to experience a substantial increase in their share of total biofuel production,” it stated.

While the OECD–FAO Outlook focuses on market trends and projections, other studies warn of environmental and health risks posed by rising biofuel production.

Biofuel’s Hidden Environmental Costs

A recent ScienceDirect review revealed that the shift of cereals to biofuel and industrial uses can cause issues like land-use changes, water depletion, greenhouse gas emissions, biodiversity loss and health risks. Potential air pollution and water contamination from biomass processing and combustion would require the need for strict emissions controls, pollution monitoring and safe waste management in biofuel supply chains.

The report further stated that extensive use of agricultural residues for bioenergy must incorporate safeguards to protect soil health and biodiversity as cultivation of biofuel crops disrupts local water cycles, soil composition, and nutrient dynamics, exacerbating biodiversity loss.

The report stated that integrated landscape management should be a key policy priority. Together with food–fuel trade-offs, these factors amplify the complexity of sustainable bioenergy transitions.