Electrons vs Molecules Debate Irrelevant For India’s Energy Security

The BRICS India 2026 Summit declaration recognised “energy security as a crucial foundation for social and economic development, national security and the welfare of all nations” and called for diversified energy sources, resilient supply chains and protected critical infrastructure. It also underscored the importance of a balanced and diversified energy mix in developing countries. The importance of this emphasis is underscored by the continuing instability around the Strait of Hormuz, at the heart of a region that includes several BRICS members, which has exposed a fundamental vulnerability in the global energy architecture. For India, which imports nearly 90% of its crude oil and around half of its natural gas, such geopolitical shocks are not merely external disruptions — they directly threaten national energy security.

Predictably, such crises renew calls for a faster transition away from fossil fuels towards renewable energy. While expanding clean energy is indispensable for decarbonisation, this narrative often overlooks the more fundamental question of what constitutes energy security. Unlike the advanced economies where the infrastructure largely exists and are replacing the fossil with non-fossil, India must simultaneously expand energy infrastructure, sustain rapid economic growth and decarbonise.

The real question, therefore, is not whether India should choose between clean energy and energy security, but how the clean energy transition itself can become the foundation of long-term energy security.

The Stock And Flow of Energy

Traditionally, energy security has been assessed through metrics such as import dependence, supplier diversification and strategic petroleum reserves. While these remain important, they are increasingly insufficient for an energy system undergoing structural transformation. As countries electrify transport, industry and households while expanding renewable energy, new vulnerabilities emerge, not only in fuel supply but also in manufacturing capacity, critical mineral supply chains, technology ownership and electricity infrastructure.

A more comprehensive framework to evaluate this evolving paradigm is through the concept of stock and flow of energy. The stock comprises the physical assets — power plants, solar modules, wind turbines, batteries, transmission systems and associated technologies. The flow refers to the fuel or resource required to produce the useful energy.

The most secure energy system is one in which both stock and flow are domestically available. Coal partially satisfies this condition because India possesses abundant domestic coal reserves. Renewables represent the next-best case. While much of today's equipment and critical minerals are imported, the energy flow — sunlight, wind, water or biomass — is entirely domestic. Oil and natural gas occupy the least secure position because the fuel flow remain highly import dependent.

For developing economies, the transition challenge is therefore not merely fossil versus non-fossil, but dependence versus resilience. The strategic objective should be to progressively reduce simultaneous dependence on imported fuels, imported technologies and vulnerable global commodity chains while expanding reliable, affordable and cleaner domestic energy systems. India's long-term objective should therefore be to build an energy system where both the stock and the flow become progressively more domestic and increasingly clean. This requires strengthening clean tech manufacturing, securing critical mineral supply chains, developing battery technologies, modernising the electricity grid and investing simultaneously in renewable energy and cleaner coal technologies.

Electrons over Molecules

Viewed through the lens of resilience, the question is no longer simply how to replace fossil fuels, but which energy pathways best strengthen long-term energy security. For rapidly developing economies such as India, an ‘electrons-first’ strategy offers the most practical route to simultaneously advancing energy security, industrial development and decarbonisation.

An ‘electrons-first’ strategy offers three distinct advantages.

First, renewable electricity has become the cheapest source of new power across much of the Global South, particularly India, making electrification economically attractive.

Second, electrification through domestic resources, whether fossil or non-fossil, reduces dependence on imported oil and gas, insulating economies from geopolitical disruptions and commodity price shocks.

Third, electricity is inherently easier to decarbonise than molecules. Mature technologies such as hydropower, solar, wind and storage are commercially available, while innovations including tandem solar cells and long-duration storage promise to accelerate this transition further.

However, this does not imply that molecules will disappear from the energy system. Aviation, shipping, fertiliser production, high-temperature industrial processes and certain segments of heavy transport will continue to depend on energy-dense molecules for the foreseeable future.

The Coal Conundrum

An important part of electrons-first strategy is also realising the importance of ensuring adequate and dependable power supply to all as share of electricity in energy mix increases from current 22% reaching towards 35%. Coal-fired generation will therefore remain indispensable in the short to medium term for maintaining system reliability, grid stability and energy security. The policy imperative should be thus not to prematurely phase down coal, but to use it more efficiently and with lower emissions.

Over time, as storage technologies mature, grid flexibility improves and phase-in of renewables accelerates, coal’s role can progressively shift from supplying baseload power towards providing flexible system support, with nuclear power providing the base load. Such a transition would enable emissions to decline without compromising energy security or economic growth.

For India, the objective is not to eliminate every fossil fuel or molecule overnight, but to progressively reduce dependence while expanding domestic stock and flow for ensuring affordable, reliable and cleaner energy.

(Debajit Palit is the Centre Head and Akanksha Jain is a Research Associate at the Centre for Climate Change and Energy Transition at Chintan Research Foundation. Views expressed are personal.)