Experts warn that the nation's potential departure could have far-reaching consequences, both for its climate strategy and global economic standing
Javier Milei, Argentina’s President, is once again considering a move to exit the Paris Climate Agreement, following in the footsteps of US President Donald Trump, who also withdrew from the Paris accord by signing an executive order on January 20, 2025.
In November 2024, Argentina withdrew delegates from COP29 United Nations Climate Summit in Baku, Azerbaijan, after just three days from beginning of the event, raising concerns about the stability of the Paris agreement.
President Milei, had dismissed climate crisis as a “socialist lie”, according to The Guardian. Argentina’s Foreign Minister, Gerardo Werthein, told the press in November 2024 that their government was considering exiting from UNFCCC, as reported by DownToEarth. However, the Foreign Minister emphasised that, while Argentina acknowledges climate change, it believes that climate change is a part of the natural cycles and not purely affected by human activities, noted DownToEarth. The question rises here is, can Argentina really exit Paris Agreement?
Adopted in December, 2015 at the UN Climate Change Conference (COP21) in Paris, by about 196 parties or countries, the Paris Agreement is a legally binding international treaty on climate change. It came into force on 4 November, 2016, according to United Nations Climate Change. The agreement aims to limit global temperature rise to well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, and aims to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. If the temperature exceeds the threshold of 1.5 degrees Celsius, it could have dangerous impacts on ecosystems and countries due to climate change.
According to the accord, every country has to submit national climate action plans, known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs) in every five years. Each successive NDC is meant to reflect an increasingly higher degree of ambition compared to the previous plan.
Although it is possible for Argentina to exit the Paris agreement, the process is not that simple. The accord was designed to prevent it from abrupt exits. According to the provisions of Paris Agreement, a member state cannot leave the agreement without serving a 12-month notice period to the UN.
According to DownToEarth, Argentina, being the second-largest economy in South America and the 24th biggest emitter of greenhouse gases globally, has a substantial fossil fuel reserves including the shale gas and shale oil reserves.
If Argentina decides to exit the Paris accord then it could result in a domino effect as the move may inspire other countries to consider exiting the Paris accord, thereby, weakening the Paris Agreement and undermining collective global efforts to combat climate change.
Experts warn that exiting Paris accord could isolate Argentina economically, as it may become less attractive trade partner for countries prioritising climate protection. In addition, the country could also lose access to climate-linked international financing streams, and it could also risk Argentina’s exclusion from global carbon markets in the future, reported Financial Times.