India’s Power Generation Set to Dip 0.6% in June Quarter as Thermal Output Slumps

India's electricity generation will face a year-on-year dip of 0.6% in the April–June 2025 quarter, according to the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE). This is mainly due to a high base effect from last summer’s record output.

During Q1FY26, total electricity production—spanning both conventional and renewable sources—is estimated to reach around 482.2bn kilowatt-hours (kWh). It is marginally down from 485.3bn kWh generated during the same period last year, which had seen an extraordinary spike in demand due to high electricity demand in March.

Notably, conventional sources dominate India's 82% of the total power generation. Now the generation from these sources is expected to shrink by 5.1% this quarter, weighed down particularly by a slump in thermal power output. But the shortfall is likely to be balanced by in renewable energy sources.

While thermal power mostly dominates India's conventional energy sector, output from thermal plants has been declining steadily. It fell 3.7% in April and plunging 10.7% in May compared to the same months last year, shows data. Overall, thermal generation is projected to decline by 6.7% in the June quarter.

The CMIE observed that the drop would've have bee sharper. Although the southwest monsoon arrived earlier than usual, it stalled until June 10. This pause caused temporary heatwave conditions across much of India leading to higher demand for electricity. This provided some support to thermal power generation.

Among other conventional sources, hydro and nuclear power are expected to fare relatively better. Hydropower generation is projected to grow by 6.5% in the June quarter, rebounding from a weak performance last year when rainfall was delayed. The nuclear power generation is likely to see strong double-digit growth, contributing to the resilience of conventional energy even as thermal falters.

The real growth story, however, lies in renewables. Driven by consistent capacity additions and favourable weather, renewable energy has continued its strong momentum. Its share in the energy mix is expected to climb from 13.2% in the June 2024 quarter to nearly 17% this year. April alone saw a 28% year-on-year jump in power generation from renewable sources, fuelled largely by robust gains in solar and wind energy. For the full June quarter, renewables are expected to grow by 26.1% compared to last year.

Looking ahead to the September 2025 quarter, electricity generation is projected to rebound, with a 4.8% year-on-year increase—slightly below the ten-year average. Once again, renewable energy is expected to lead the charge, marking its fifth consecutive quarter of outpacing conventional sources. While conventional output is expected to grow by a modest 1%, renewable generation is forecast to surge nearly 30%. Within the conventional segment, growth will likely be driven by hydropower and nuclear, with thermal continuing to lag behind.

The government added a total power generating capacity of 13,495 megawatts (MW) in January-March 2025. Renewables accounted for 78.9% of all new capacity additions. Among them, the government included 7,782 MW of solar power during the period. As of March, total solar capacity of India stands at 105,646 MW. Wind power capacity also crossed the 50 GW mark, reaching 50,038 MW.