Sustainable Aviation Fuel Could Fall Short of 2030 Targets: Can Aviation Industry Close the Gap?

The sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) industry is at risk of missing its 2030 target, as production is not accelerating quickly enough, according to a Boston Consulting Group (BCG) found in a report published on March 27.

European airlines are expected to meet a mandate of 2% SAF use in their jet fuel this year, with that figure set to rise to 6% by 2030. However, many airlines have lamented the high cost of the fuel, which is typically three to five times more expensive than conventional jet fuel, reported Reuters.

The report found that airlines and airports are investing only 1% to 3% of their revenue or budget allocation to SAF, indicating that high production costs and fuel prices remain major challenges to adoption.

“We are going in the positive direction, but clearly not at the speed we need,” BCG Managing Director and Partner Pelayo Losada told Reuters, talking about his executives at about 200 aviation-related companies.

“Despite continuing to scale the availability of sustainable aviation fuel and we see that trend very clearly, there is slowdown in the development of projects and even bigger gaps to some of the commitments that some of the companies have made,” added Losada.

While the global aviation industry is aiming to reach net-zero emissions by 2050 and some countries have SAF mandates in place, the fuel accounted for only about 0.3% of global jet fuel production in 2024.

BCG’s report highlights that while SAF supply increased 1,150% worldwide over the last three years, announcements for new production facilities fell by 50% to 70% from 2022 to 2023.

Aviation Industry Fueling Progress

Although advances are being made in the science and industry of SAF production, progress is too slow to meet the aviation industry’s decarbonisation goals, according to a 2024 Mckinsey & Company report.

The report further highlighted that trillions in additional capital will be required to build the necessary infrastructure to meet global demand by 2050 as more players invest in the SAF supply chain.

To bridge the gap, long-term infrastructure investors may need to step in and finance capacity development. With uncertain demand and technology still maturing, a globally coordinated regulatory environment will be key to mitigating risks.