Will Sensex Hit 100K by 2026? Morgan Stanley Weighs In

As the geopolitical sphere continues to witness heightened turbulence owing to sudden events impacting the macros, investor sentiment has remained jittery. For Indian markets, fears over uncertain events surged after the recent border tensions escalated between the country and Pakistan. However, the Indian benchmark indices still managed to remain the most resilient among peers.

Morgan Stanley's recent estimates also reflect this optimism. The financial institution said that India's BSE Sensex is likely to hit 89,000 level by June 2026 and called the recent drop in the Indian market as a buying opportunity.

"Our new Sensex June 2026 target of 89,000 (8% upside) bakes in our new earnings estimates and is also rolled forward from the December 2025 target of 82,000," Morgan Stanley's Ridham Desai said.

He also added that this forecast implies the index would be trading at a trailing PE ratio of 23.5x, which is higher than the 25-year average of 21x.

Morgan Stanley stated that there's a 50% probability to its base case scenario of Sensex reaching 89,000, based on expectations of strong domestic growth, modest US expansion without a recession and stable oil prices.

Sensex to Hit 100k Mark?

The financial institutional also sees a 30% likelihood of Sensex breaching the 1,00,000 mark during the same period.

However, for this optimistic level to breach, oil price would have to stay below the $65 price level. Other conditions include, GST rate reduction, India Inc's earnings growth CAGR of 19%, advancement in farm legislation and most importantly, easing of gloal trade tensions.

"Despite all the events of the past two months, Indian stocks remained orderly even when they declined with limited increase in implied volumes. Persistent retail buying underpins its structural nature. Foreign portfolios positioning is the weakest since we have had the data in 2000 and there are signs that their view on India is shifting," Desai said.