Reliance Shares Surge 3% as Q3 Beats D-Street Estimates; Here's What Global Analysts Are Saying

Reliance Share: After a subdued performance last year, Reliance shares are back in the game. On Friday, the share price of the Mukesh Ambani-led conglomerate was up by over 2% after the company's net profit figure surged by over 7.3% for Q3FY25.

Besides profits, revenue from operations also surged by 6.9% to Rs 2.43 lakh crore as compared to Rs 2.27 lakh crore recorded in the corresponding quarter of the previous year.

This comes as a major relief for investors after Reliance’s dull run in 2024, when the stock ended the year in the red territory.

At 10:15 am, the shares of the conglomerate at Rs 1,288.45 price level, up by 1.74% on the National Stock Exchange.

The revenue figure was also up by 7.7% year-on-year to Rs 2.67 lakh crore.

Be it for retail, oil-to-chemicals or telecom, the conglomerate reported robust growth in all segments. In the retail sphere, the company posted a profit of Rs 3,458 crore, marking a 10% year-on-year rise. The oil-to-chemicals business, which remained under pressure in the second half of last year, witnessed a 2.4% rise in Ebitda to Rs 14,402 crore. As for its telecom arm, the overall customer base grew to 482.1 million in Q3. Plus, ARPU (Average revenue per user) surpassed the Rs 200 per month mark.

What Global brokerage firms are saying?

The overall sentiment seems to have turned positive for the stock as Reliance shares have increased by nearly 6% since the advent of this month even as the broader markets remained dim. Nomura pointed out 3 main triggers for this optimism, including Reliance's entry into the new energy business and a higher-than-expected tariff hike in the telecom segment.

"We reiterate our Buy rating on RIL; we note that RIL has three triggers in the near-term: commencement of the new energy business in Mar’25; upcoming tariff hikes for Jio, which we believe has upside versus our conservative estimate of a 10% tariff hike; and potential IPO/listing for Jio (link ), which we expect will drive value unlocking for RIL," global brokerage firm, Nomura stated in its report.

Besides future outlook, Reliance has also been able to reduce its net debt, albeit marginally.

Morgan Stanley has also upgraded Reliance to the second spot in their preference order for India’s Energy and Chemicals coverage.

"Q3FY25 earnings were better than the low expectations, but more importantly had the ingredients for the stock to re-rate back to mid-cycle multiples as the risk of earnings downgrades unwinds.....We see triggers for the stock emerging in 2025 from both refining and the retail vertical," the global firm said.

Analysts also believe that the stock price is near its worst-case scenario, which makes the risk-to-reward outlook for the stock more attractive.

Goldman Sachs stated in its report that Reliance's stock is currently trading at a 23% discount to its overall value NAV (Net asset value), compared to a 12% average discount over the past 10 years. "We believe the macro and micro setup are now aligning well for a strong returns inflection in FY26. We expect consolidated CROCI (Cash Return on Capital Invested) to expand 95/75 bps in FY26E/FY27E and FY26E EBITDA to grow 22% YoY," the report added.

Most brokerage firms have recommended a buy call for the stock, believing that the worst is behind for the oil-to-telecom giant. However, tightening global refining and chemical markets, along with delays in monetising its energy business, remain key risks.