Gold Rally to Continue? Analysts Lift Targets, 3 Key Trends in Focus

Gold Rate Today: After a brief easing period, gold witnessed a price surge yet again. The yellow metal was a tad closer to the Rs 90k price mark. As for the global market, gold's rally continued amidst lingering uncertainty owing to Trump's April 2 tariff deadline. Traders and investors are now increasingly focusing on the safe-haven asset, which is pushing the yellow metal's overall outlook into optimistic territory.

Goldman Sachs recently raised its gold price forecast to $3,300 per ounce, up from its earlier estimate of $3,100. The investment bank has set a target range of $3,250 to $3,520 per ounce. This follows a similar move by Bank of America, which increased its gold forecast to an average of $3,063 per ounce for this year and $3,350 per ounce for 2026.

On Thursday, the rate of 24-carat gold (per 10 grams) experienced a minor surge to Rs 89,560 in Delhi on March 27, Thursday. Here are 3 key trends investors must keep an eye on-

1.Uncertainty Owing to Trump Tariffs

As the April 2 tariff deadline nears, the Trump administration has provided little clarity on how these tariffs will be implemented. According to a recent report by Emkay Global, the imposition of reciprocal tariffs by the US on every single individual commodity of nearly 200 countries might be a big headache as it will involve the creation of over 2.6 million individual tariff rates.

"It must be noted that imposing reciprocal tariffs at an individual commodity level (~13,000 items) on nearly 200 countries, would entail managing ~2.6mn individual tariff rates, without accounting for exemptions and exceptions – a vast undertaking. This makes it likely that any tariffs if imposed, will be broad-based," the report read.

This has given rise to heightened uncertainty, which both investors and corporates hate. This might increase gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset.

2.Trade Wars

The imposition of tariffs is likely to prompt other countries to impose reciprocal tariffs on US imports as well. This could further complicate the situation, fueling fears of a trade war. So far this year, gold has surged by around 15%, while the US markets have largely remained in negative territory.

For instance, the S&P 500 has delivered negative returns of over 2.6% year-to-date. Canada and the EU have already announced counter-tariffs, and it is widely expected that other nations might follow suit. All this has heightened concerns over trade wars, eventually pushing gold price estimates higher.

3.Russia Ukraine Situation

Gold remained largely range-bound near Rs 87,575 in MCX and $3,015 in Comex as market participants awaited key economic data, including US GDP and Core PCE Price Index, scheduled for release later this week, as per Jateen Trivedi, VP research analyst-commodity and currency, LKP Securities.

"However, the broader trend will also be influenced by developments in the Russia-Ukraine situation, which continues to drive safe-haven demand. The price range for gold is expected to be between Rs 87,000 and Rs 88,000 in MCX," he said.