Should India be Worried About Rising Covid Cases?

More than five years since the first Covid lockdown, India is once again witnessing an uptick in infection numbers.

The dominant strain globally is the Omicron subvariant, NB 1.8.1, shows WHO data. NB 1.8.1's increasing share in genetically sequenced samples worldwide also indicates its higher transmissibility

Cases in India have so far been mild and symptoms are those of the common cold. Among the top six states in infection numbers, Kerala remains the most affected, much like during previous surges

In the top six countries with the highest prevalence, the newly detected subvariant has rapidly outcompeted other strains

At the moment, there is little cause for alarm. India has seen worse, notably during the second wave in 2021, when daily cases crossed 4 lakh. In contrast, the current rise is modest

But any uptick in infection numbers puts the spotlight on India’s health-care infrastructure and raises the question: Can India weather another Covid storm, given its population of over 1.4bn?

Improvements in health care should not lead to complacency, warn experts. Nurse numbers have improved only marginally and with just 6.9 ICU beds per 1,00,000 people, critical-care capacity remains limited in the face of a Covid spike

Research: Harshita Bansal | Graphics: Nikita Chawla